Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 01/11, 15:00

Prediction: IK Uppsala (W) vs Hammarby (W)

Team pages: IK Uppsala (W) · Hammarby (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.24Total

IK Uppsala (W)1.12

Hammarby (W)3.12

1X2

5% 8% 86%

IK Uppsala (W) Draw Hammarby (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

IK Uppsala (W) 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Hammarby (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLWWLW

Head-to-head

IK Uppsala (W) 1–4 Hammarby (W) (5 last)

Hammarby (W)3-0IK Uppsala (W)
Hammarby (W)2-0IK Uppsala (W)
IK Uppsala (W)0-2Hammarby (W)
IK Uppsala (W)0-4Hammarby (W)
Hammarby (W)1-3IK Uppsala (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IK Uppsala (W) 1371 · Hammarby (W) 1614

	IK Uppsala (W)	Draw	Hammarby (W)
Our model	10%	14%	76%
Market	2%	4%	94%

Estimated total (ours) 4.24 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby (W) (rating 1371 vs 1614).
H2H favours Hammarby (W): 4-0-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IK Uppsala (W)	Hammarby (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.2 / 4.7	2.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 2.4	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/20/80%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.3	2.8 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.2 / 0	1.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

151.00

X26.00

21.01

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+4.5)1.95

2 (-4.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 51.85

Under 51.95

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	51.00 → 67.00▲	Bet365 67.00
X	26.00 → 23.00▼	Bet365 23.00
2	1.01 → 1.01	Bet365 1.01

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +7’	51.00	26.00	1.01
14:10 +10’	67.00▲	23.00▼	1.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IK Uppsala (W) 1–0–4 Hammarby (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Hammarby (W)	3-0 HT 3-0	IK Uppsala (W)
01/10/23 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Hammarby (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	IK Uppsala (W)
01/04/23 Sweden Damallsvenskan	IK Uppsala (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Hammarby (W)
04/03/23 Sweden Cup Women	IK Uppsala (W)	0-4 HT 0-1	Hammarby (W)
27/10/19 Sweden Elitettan	Hammarby (W)	1-3 HT 1-0	IK Uppsala (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BK Hacken (W)	23	21	1	1	75	14	64
2	Hammarby (W)	24	19	2	3	61	13	59
3	Malmo FF (W)	23	13	6	4	45	17	45
4	AIK (W)	24	12	4	8	39	34	40
5	Kristianstads (W)	23	10	5	8	41	34	35
6	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	24	10	3	11	22	30	33
7	Vittsjö GIK (W)	24	9	5	10	29	32	32
8	Brommapojkarna (W)	24	10	2	12	33	44	32
9	Djurgardens (W)	24	9	3	12	32	39	30
10	Pitea IF (W)	24	7	6	11	28	34	27
11	FC Rosengård (W)	24	6	6	12	24	29	24
12	IFK Norrkoping (W)	23	5	8	10	25	37	23
13	Vaxjo (W)	24	5	4	15	26	47	19
14	IK Uppsala (W)	24	1	3	20	14	90	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IK Uppsala (W)	Hammarby (W)
IFK Norrkoping (W)	0-5 L	2-0 W
BK Hacken (W)	0-9 L	0-3 L
Djurgardens (W)	1-4 L	3-0 W
Brommapojkarna (W)	0-1 L	2-0 W
Vittsjö GIK (W)	0-5 L	3-1 W
Eskilstuna Utd (W)	0-6 L	3-0 W
Pitea IF (W)	1-5 L	5-0 W
Malmo FF (W)	0-6 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 8 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby (W) (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IK Uppsala (W)

LLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-5	3	1	L
17/10	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-5	1	1	L
04/10	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-6	0-9	0	2	L
26/09	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	1-4	1	0	L
19/09	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
12/09	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
05/09	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-5	3	3	L
28/08	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-5	0-6	1	1	L
23/08	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	1-5	0	1	L
15/08	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-5	0-6	4	0	L

Hammarby (W)

WDWWWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
18/10	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-3	1	4	L
04/10	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
26/09	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	3-0	12	2	W
19/09	AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	1-2	2	3	L
13/09	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	3-0	7	1	W
05/09	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	2-0	14	2	W
29/08	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	3-1	8	1	W
21/08	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
16/08	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	4-0	5-0	7	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IK Uppsala (W) vs Hammarby (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hammarby (W) win (86%). Probabilities: IK Uppsala (W) 5%, draw 8%, Hammarby (W) 86%.

How many goals are expected in IK Uppsala (W) vs Hammarby (W)?

The model expects 4.24 goals (IK Uppsala (W) 1.12 · Hammarby (W) 3.12), with a 58% chance of under 5 goals.

Will both teams score in IK Uppsala (W) vs Hammarby (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.