Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: Pitea IF (W) vs Malmo FF (W)

Team pages: Pitea IF (W) · Malmo FF (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Pitea IF (W)0.89

Malmo FF (W)1.84

1X2

17% 23% 59%

Pitea IF (W) Draw Malmo FF (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Pitea IF (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLDLDLWL

Malmo FF (W) 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWLWWWD

Head-to-head

Pitea IF (W) 2–1–1 Malmo FF (W) (4 last)

Malmo FF (W)0-0Pitea IF (W)
Malmo FF (W)2-3Pitea IF (W)
Malmo FF (W)1-2Pitea IF (W)
Pitea IF (W)0-3Malmo FF (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pitea IF (W) 1520 · Malmo FF (W) 1588

	Pitea IF (W)	Draw	Malmo FF (W)
Our model	17%	25%	59%
Market	18%	22%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malmo FF (W) (rating 1520 vs 1588).
H2H favours Pitea IF (W): 2-1-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pitea IF (W)	Malmo FF (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.2	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0.1	1.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.00

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.93

2 (-1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
X	3.90 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.66 ★
2	1.57 → 1.50▼	Pinn 1.65

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:10 +6’	4.50	3.90	1.57
18:10 +3’	5.00▲	4.00▲	1.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:16	5.59	4.38	1.43
18:06 +6’	3.81▼	4.66▲	1.65▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pitea IF (W) 2–1–1 Malmo FF (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/07/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Malmo FF (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Pitea IF (W)
15/02/26 Sweden Cup Women	Malmo FF (W)	2-3 HT 1-0	Pitea IF (W)
02/11/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Malmo FF (W)	1-2 HT 1-2	Pitea IF (W)
15/06/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Pitea IF (W)	0-3 HT 0-0	Malmo FF (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BK Hacken (W)	24	22	1	1	79	15	67
2	Hammarby (W)	24	19	2	3	61	13	59
3	Malmo FF (W)	24	13	7	4	46	18	46
4	AIK (W)	24	12	4	8	39	34	40
5	Kristianstads (W)	24	10	5	9	42	38	35
6	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	24	10	3	11	22	30	33
7	Vittsjö GIK (W)	24	9	5	10	29	32	32
8	Brommapojkarna (W)	24	10	2	12	33	44	32
9	Djurgardens (W)	24	9	3	12	32	39	30
10	Pitea IF (W)	24	7	6	11	28	34	27
11	FC Rosengård (W)	24	6	6	12	24	29	24
12	IFK Norrkoping (W)	24	5	9	10	26	38	24
13	Vaxjo (W)	24	5	4	15	26	47	19
14	IK Uppsala (W)	24	1	3	20	14	90	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pitea IF (W)	Malmo FF (W)
Eskilstuna Utd (W)	0-1 L	1-0 W
Djurgardens (W)	2-3 L	3-0 W
IFK Norrkoping (W)	1-1 D	1-1 D
FC Rosengård (W)	0-1 L	1-0 W
Kristianstads (W)	2-2 D	2-1 W
AIK (W)	0-1 L	3-2 W
Vaxjo (W)	2-0 W	4-0 W
Brommapojkarna (W)	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Malmo FF (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pitea IF (W)

WDWLDLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
25/10	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
18/10	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	2-3	9	2	L
03/10	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
27/09	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
20/09	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-2	4	0	D
13/09	AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
05/09	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-0	9	2	W
30/08	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-1	7	0	D
23/08	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	5-1	7	1	W

Malmo FF (W)

DWDWWLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
24/10	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	2-1	3	0	W
17/10	AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-1	3-2	2	3	W
04/10	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	9	1	W
27/09	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	1-3	8	1	L
18/09	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	3-0	9	1	W
12/09	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-0	9	1	W
06/09	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
29/08	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
21/08	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	4	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pitea IF (W) vs Malmo FF (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Malmo FF (W) win (59%). Probabilities: Pitea IF (W) 17%, draw 23%, Malmo FF (W) 59%.

How many goals are expected in Pitea IF (W) vs Malmo FF (W)?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Pitea IF (W) 0.89 · Malmo FF (W) 1.84), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pitea IF (W) vs Malmo FF (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.