Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 07/11, 14:00

Prediction: FC Rosengård (W) vs Hammarby (W)

Team pages: FC Rosengård (W) · Hammarby (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

FC Rosengård (W)0.91

Hammarby (W)1.75

1X2

19% 24% 57%

FC Rosengård (W) Draw Hammarby (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Rosengård (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWLWLD

Hammarby (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWWLWW

Head-to-head

FC Rosengård (W) 0–1–5 Hammarby (W) (6 last)

Hammarby (W)3-1FC Rosengård (W)
FC Rosengård (W)0-4Hammarby (W)
FC Rosengård (W)2-2Hammarby (W)
Hammarby (W)5-0FC Rosengård (W)
Hammarby (W)4-0FC Rosengård (W)
FC Rosengård (W)2-3Hammarby (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Rosengård (W) 1498 · Hammarby (W) 1621

	FC Rosengård (W)	Draw	Hammarby (W)
Our model	18%	26%	56%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby (W) (rating 1498 vs 1621).
H2H favours Hammarby (W): 5-1-0.
High corners: 13.4 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Rosengård (W)	Hammarby (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.8	2.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	3.5 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	1.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.00

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 5.07 ★
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +16’	4.50	4.00	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:17 +2’	4.48	5.07	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Rosengård (W) 0–1–5 Hammarby (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Hammarby (W)	3-1 HT 3-0	FC Rosengård (W)
23/02/26 Sweden Cup Women	FC Rosengård (W)	0-4 HT 0-2	Hammarby (W)
12/08/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	FC Rosengård (W)	2-2 HT 2-0	Hammarby (W)
01/05/25 Sweden Cup Women	Hammarby (W)	5-0 HT 2-0	FC Rosengård (W)
14/04/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Hammarby (W)	4-0 HT 4-0	FC Rosengård (W)
20/10/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	FC Rosengård (W)	2-3 HT 2-1	Hammarby (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BK Hacken (W)	24	22	1	1	79	15	67
2	Hammarby (W)	24	19	2	3	61	13	59
3	Malmo FF (W)	24	13	7	4	46	18	46
4	AIK (W)	24	12	4	8	39	34	40
5	Kristianstads (W)	24	10	5	9	42	38	35
6	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	24	10	3	11	22	30	33
7	Vittsjö GIK (W)	24	9	5	10	29	32	32
8	Brommapojkarna (W)	24	10	2	12	33	44	32
9	Djurgardens (W)	24	9	3	12	32	39	30
10	Pitea IF (W)	24	7	6	11	28	34	27
11	FC Rosengård (W)	24	6	6	12	24	29	24
12	IFK Norrkoping (W)	24	5	9	10	26	38	24
13	Vaxjo (W)	24	5	4	15	26	47	19
14	IK Uppsala (W)	24	1	3	20	14	90	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Rosengård (W)	Hammarby (W)
Vaxjo (W)	1-1 D	3-0 W
AIK (W)	0-2 L	1-2 L
Vittsjö GIK (W)	2-0 W	3-1 W
Malmo FF (W)	0-1 L	1-1 D
IFK Norrkoping (W)	1-2 L	2-0 W
IK Uppsala (W)	1-0 W	7-0 W
Djurgardens (W)	1-0 W	3-0 W
BK Hacken (W)	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Rosengård (W)

DLWWLWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
25/10	AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
17/10	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
04/10	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
27/09	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
20/09	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-2	10	4	L
12/09	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	11	0	W
05/09	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
29/08	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
22/08	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	1-1	0	0	D

Hammarby (W)

DWWWLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	4-0	7-0	14	1	W
24/10	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
18/10	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-3	1	4	L
04/10	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
26/09	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	3-0	12	2	W
19/09	AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	1-2	2	3	L
13/09	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	3-0	7	1	W
05/09	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	2-0	14	2	W
29/08	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	3-1	8	1	W
21/08	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-1	4	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Rosengård (W) vs Hammarby (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hammarby (W) win (57%). Probabilities: FC Rosengård (W) 19%, draw 24%, Hammarby (W) 57%.

How many goals are expected in FC Rosengård (W) vs Hammarby (W)?

The model expects 2.65 goals (FC Rosengård (W) 0.91 · Hammarby (W) 1.75), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Rosengård (W) vs Hammarby (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.