Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 02/11, 18:00

Prediction: Malmo FF (W) vs IFK Norrkoping (W)

Team pages: Malmo FF (W) · IFK Norrkoping (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Malmo FF (W)2.32

IFK Norrkoping (W)0.82

1X2

71% 18% 11%

Malmo FF (W) Draw IFK Norrkoping (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Malmo FF (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWLWWW

IFK Norrkoping (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLLWLDWW

Head-to-head

Malmo FF (W) 1–1–1 IFK Norrkoping (W) (3 last)

IFK Norrkoping (W)1-1Malmo FF (W)
IFK Norrkoping (W)0-4Malmo FF (W)
Malmo FF (W)0-2IFK Norrkoping (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malmo FF (W) 1625 · IFK Norrkoping (W) 1465

	Malmo FF (W)	Draw	IFK Norrkoping (W)
Our model	70%	19%	11%
Market	71%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malmo FF (W) (rating 1625 vs 1465).
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malmo FF (W)	IFK Norrkoping (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.8	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.3	1.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Pinn 1.30
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 6.17 ★
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:26 +6’	1.27	5.00	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:23 +10’	1.34	5.71	6.15
02:49 +13’	1.31▼	5.90▲	6.59▲
11:50 +13’	1.29▼	5.99▲	6.59
16:01 +1’	1.30▲	6.17▲	6.81▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Malmo FF (W) 1–1–1 IFK Norrkoping (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan	IFK Norrkoping (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Malmo FF (W)
08/11/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	IFK Norrkoping (W)	0-4 HT 0-1	Malmo FF (W)
30/03/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Malmo FF (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	IFK Norrkoping (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BK Hacken (W)	23	21	1	1	75	14	64
2	Hammarby (W)	24	19	2	3	61	13	59
3	Malmo FF (W)	23	13	6	4	45	17	45
4	AIK (W)	24	12	4	8	39	34	40
5	Kristianstads (W)	23	10	5	8	41	34	35
6	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	24	10	3	11	22	30	33
7	Vittsjö GIK (W)	24	9	5	10	29	32	32
8	Brommapojkarna (W)	24	10	2	12	33	44	32
9	Djurgardens (W)	24	9	3	12	32	39	30
10	Pitea IF (W)	24	7	6	11	28	34	27
11	FC Rosengård (W)	24	6	6	12	24	29	24
12	IFK Norrkoping (W)	23	5	8	10	25	37	23
13	Vaxjo (W)	24	5	4	15	26	47	19
14	IK Uppsala (W)	24	1	3	20	14	90	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malmo FF (W)	IFK Norrkoping (W)
Kristianstads (W)	2-1 W	0-5 L
FC Rosengård (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Brommapojkarna (W)	1-3 L	0-2 L
Djurgardens (W)	3-0 W	0-1 L
Eskilstuna Utd (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
BK Hacken (W)	1-1 D	0-6 L
Hammarby (W)	1-1 D	0-2 L
IK Uppsala (W)	6-0 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Malmo FF (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Malmo FF (W)

WDWDWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	2-1	3	0	W
17/10	AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-1	3-2	2	3	W
04/10	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	9	1	W
27/09	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	1-3	8	1	L
18/09	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	3-0	9	1	W
12/09	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-0	9	1	W
06/09	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
29/08	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
21/08	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
15/08	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	5-0	6-0	6	0	W

IFK Norrkoping (W)

LDLLLWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	5-0	3	1	W
17/10	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	2-1	6	0	W
03/10	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
26/09	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-6	3	0	L
20/09	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
12/09	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
05/09	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
30/08	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
23/08	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	1-1	9	0	D
16/08	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-5	7	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malmo FF (W) vs IFK Norrkoping (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Malmo FF (W) win (71%). Probabilities: Malmo FF (W) 71%, draw 18%, IFK Norrkoping (W) 11%.

How many goals are expected in Malmo FF (W) vs IFK Norrkoping (W)?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Malmo FF (W) 2.32 · IFK Norrkoping (W) 0.82), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Malmo FF (W) vs IFK Norrkoping (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.