Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 15/11, 14:00

Prediction: IFK Norrkoping (W) vs AIK (W)

Team pages: IFK Norrkoping (W) · AIK (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

IFK Norrkoping (W)1.45

AIK (W)1.55

1X2

34% 28% 38%

IFK Norrkoping (W) Draw AIK (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Norrkoping (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDWWDW

AIK (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWWLLWWW

Head-to-head

IFK Norrkoping (W) 4–2 AIK (W) (6 last)

AIK (W)1-0IFK Norrkoping (W)
AIK (W)1-2IFK Norrkoping (W)
IFK Norrkoping (W)1-0AIK (W)
IFK Norrkoping (W)2-0AIK (W)
IFK Norrkoping (W)2-3AIK (W)
AIK (W)2-3IFK Norrkoping (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Norrkoping (W) 1513 · AIK (W) 1563

	IFK Norrkoping (W)	Draw	AIK (W)
Our model	34%	26%	39%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AIK (W) (rating 1513 vs 1563).
H2H favours IFK Norrkoping (W): 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Norrkoping (W)	AIK (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	2.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.2	3.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.70▲	Pinn 2.87
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.53 ★
2	2.70 → 2.38▼	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:05 +8’	2.40	3.10	2.70
16:07 +11’	2.70▲	3.10	2.38▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:11 +6’	3.26	3.69	1.97
18:22 +7’	2.87▼	3.53▼	2.21▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Norrkoping (W) 4–0–2 AIK (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	IFK Norrkoping (W)
16/11/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	1-2 HT 1-0	IFK Norrkoping (W)
13/04/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	IFK Norrkoping (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	AIK (W)
10/03/25 Sweden Cup Women	IFK Norrkoping (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	AIK (W)
09/11/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	IFK Norrkoping (W)	2-3 HT 1-0	AIK (W)
04/05/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	2-3 HT 1-3	IFK Norrkoping (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BK Hacken (W)	25	22	2	1	80	16	68
2	Hammarby (W)	25	20	2	3	63	13	62
3	Malmo FF (W)	25	13	8	4	47	19	47
4	AIK (W)	25	13	4	8	47	36	43
5	Kristianstads (W)	25	11	5	9	44	39	38
6	Vittsjö GIK (W)	25	10	5	10	34	36	35
7	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	25	10	3	12	23	32	33
8	Brommapojkarna (W)	25	10	2	13	37	49	32
9	Djurgardens (W)	25	9	4	12	33	40	31
10	Pitea IF (W)	25	7	7	11	29	35	28
11	IFK Norrkoping (W)	25	6	9	10	27	38	27
12	FC Rosengård (W)	25	6	6	13	24	31	24
13	Vaxjo (W)	25	5	4	16	26	48	19
14	IK Uppsala (W)	25	1	3	21	16	98	6

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Norrkoping (W)	AIK (W)
Vaxjo (W)	1-0 W	3-0 W
Malmo FF (W)	1-1 D	2-3 L
IK Uppsala (W)	5-0 W	8-2 W
Eskilstuna Utd (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Pitea IF (W)	1-1 D	1-0 W
FC Rosengård (W)	2-1 W	2-0 W
Brommapojkarna (W)	0-2 L	5-2 W
Hammarby (W)	0-2 L	2-1 W
Djurgardens (W)	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 3 L	6 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AIK (W) (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Norrkoping (W)

LLLWLDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
02/11	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
24/10	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	5-0	3	1	W
17/10	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	2-1	6	0	W
03/10	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
26/09	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-6	3	0	L
20/09	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
12/09	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
05/09	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
30/08	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	9	4	L

AIK (W)

LDWWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	4-2	8-2	17	1	W
31/10	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-2	5-2	2	1	W
25/10	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
17/10	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-3	2-3	5	3	L
04/10	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-2	6	1	L
26/09	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-0	3-0	6	3	W
19/09	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
13/09	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
05/09	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
29/08	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Norrkoping (W) vs AIK (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AIK (W) win (38%). Probabilities: IFK Norrkoping (W) 34%, draw 28%, AIK (W) 38%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Norrkoping (W) vs AIK (W)?

The model expects 3 goals (IFK Norrkoping (W) 1.45 · AIK (W) 1.55), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping (W) vs AIK (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.