Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 04/10, 14:00

Prediction: Djurgardens (W) vs AIK (W)

Team pages: Djurgardens (W) · AIK (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Djurgardens (W)1.18

AIK (W)1.67

1X2

26% 26% 48%

Djurgardens (W) Draw AIK (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Djurgardens (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWLLLW

AIK (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLDWWW

Head-to-head

Djurgardens (W) 3–2–1 AIK (W) (6 last)

AIK (W)3-0Djurgardens (W)
AIK (W)0-1Djurgardens (W)
Djurgardens (W)4-0AIK (W)
AIK (W)1-1Djurgardens (W)
Djurgardens (W)2-0AIK (W)
Djurgardens (W)2-2AIK (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Djurgardens (W) 1499 · AIK (W) 1547

	Djurgardens (W)	Draw	AIK (W)
Our model	26%	26%	48%
Market	26%	26%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AIK (W) (rating 1499 vs 1547).
H2H favours Djurgardens (W): 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Djurgardens (W)	AIK (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.2	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.2 / 0	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.50

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	2.10 → 1.85▼	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
20:10 +3’	2.88	3.40	2.10
22:48 +14’	3.40▲	3.50▲	1.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Djurgardens (W) 3–2–1 AIK (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Djurgardens (W)
23/08/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Djurgardens (W)
20/05/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Djurgardens (W)	4-0 HT 2-0	AIK (W)
12/10/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Djurgardens (W)
08/06/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Djurgardens (W)	2-0 HT 2-0	AIK (W)
24/03/24 Sweden Cup Women	Djurgardens (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	AIK (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BK Hacken (W)	20	18	1	1	61	13	55
2	Hammarby (W)	20	16	2	2	49	10	50
3	Malmo FF (W)	20	10	6	4	39	14	36
4	AIK (W)	20	10	4	6	29	27	34
5	Kristianstads (W)	20	8	5	7	33	32	29
6	Vittsjö GIK (W)	20	8	5	7	27	26	29
7	Brommapojkarna (W)	20	9	2	9	28	34	29
8	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	20	8	3	9	18	25	27
9	Pitea IF (W)	20	6	5	9	23	29	23
10	Djurgardens (W)	20	6	3	11	25	33	21
11	FC Rosengård (W)	20	5	5	10	21	25	20
12	Vaxjo (W)	20	5	3	12	23	40	18
13	IFK Norrkoping (W)	20	3	7	10	17	35	16
14	IK Uppsala (W)	20	1	3	16	14	64	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Djurgardens (W)	AIK (W)
Kristianstads (W)	0-2 L	0-1 L
Brommapojkarna (W)	2-2 D	1-0 W
Vaxjo (W)	3-2 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AIK (W) (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Djurgardens (W)

LLWWDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	4-1	9	0	W
18/09	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-3	4	1	L
13/09	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-2	4	0	L
05/09	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
30/08	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
22/08	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
14/08	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	3-2	4	2	W
08/08	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-0	8-0	18	0	W
01/08	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
24/06	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	1-4	7	2	L

AIK (W)

WLWLLLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-0	3-0	6	3	W
19/09	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
13/09	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
05/09	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
29/08	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
23/08	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-2	1-4	1	2	L
15/08	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-2	11	1	L
07/08	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
01/08	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-3	0-3	3	4	L
24/06	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Djurgardens (W) vs AIK (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AIK (W) win (48%). Probabilities: Djurgardens (W) 26%, draw 26%, AIK (W) 48%.

How many goals are expected in Djurgardens (W) vs AIK (W)?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Djurgardens (W) 1.18 · AIK (W) 1.67), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Djurgardens (W) vs AIK (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.