Football · Republic of Ireland National League Women · 05/09, 19:00

Prediction: Athlone Town (W) vs Waterford FC (W)

Team pages: Athlone Town (W) · Waterford FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.7Total

Athlone Town (W)2.85

Waterford FC (W)0.85

1X2

84% 10% 5%

Athlone Town (W) Draw Waterford FC (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Athlone Town (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWWWW

Waterford FC (W) 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLDDLLDDLW

Head-to-head

Athlone Town (W) 3–0 Waterford FC (W) (3 last)

Waterford FC (W)2-4Athlone Town (W)
Waterford FC (W)0-2Athlone Town (W)
Athlone Town (W)3-0Waterford FC (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athlone Town (W) 1611 · Waterford FC (W) 1429

	Athlone Town (W)	Draw	Waterford FC (W)
Our model	78%	14%	8%
Market	90%	7%	3%

Estimated total (ours) 3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athlone Town (W) (rating 1611 vs 1429).
H2H favours Athlone Town (W): 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athlone Town (W)	Waterford FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.1	0.2 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	1.7 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.05

X13.00

229.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.75)1.80

2 (+2.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.88

Under 3.51.93

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.08 → 1.05▼	Bet365 1.05
X	10.00 → 13.00▲	Bet365 13.00
2	21.00 → 29.00▲	Bet365 29.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:40 +9’	1.08	10.00	21.00
09:41 +11’	1.05▼	13.00▲	29.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athlone Town (W) 3–0–0 Waterford FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Republic of Ireland National League Women	Waterford FC (W)	2-4 HT 2-0	Athlone Town (W)
03/09/25 Republic of Ireland National League Women	Waterford FC (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Athlone Town (W)
10/05/25 Republic of Ireland National League Women	Athlone Town (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Waterford FC (W)

Standings · Republic of Ireland National League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Athlone Town (W)	16	13	2	1	37	12	41
2	Shelbourne (W)	16	10	5	1	31	13	35
3	Galway (W)	15	10	4	1	26	12	34
4	Shamrock Rovers (W)	16	8	4	4	31	17	28
5	FC Treaty United (W)	16	7	4	5	22	13	25
6	Sligo Rovers (W)	16	6	5	5	28	25	23
7	Wexford FC (W)	15	5	5	5	25	21	20
8	Peamount Utd (W)	16	5	2	9	22	34	17
9	Waterford FC (W)	16	2	6	8	13	30	12
10	Bohemians Dublin (W)	16	2	5	9	16	28	11
11	DLR Waves (W)	16	3	2	11	8	25	11
12	Cork City (W)	16	1	2	13	11	40	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athlone Town (W)	Waterford FC (W)
Shamrock Rovers (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Peamount Utd (W)	2-0 W	3-5 L
Sligo Rovers (W)	3-2 W	2-1 W
Bohemians Dublin (W)	3-0 W	2-2 D
Cork City (W)	3-0 W	0-0 D
Shelbourne (W)	1-1 D	0-3 L
Galway (W)	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Athlone Town (W) (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athlone Town (W)

WLWDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Shamrock Rovers (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
19/08	Peamount Utd (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
15/08	Sligo Rovers (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
08/08	Wexford FC (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	0-0	3-0	4	2	W
18/07	Bohemians Dublin (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	1-0	3-0	7	1	W
11/07	Cork City (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
08/07	Shelbourne (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
20/06	Shamrock Rovers (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
23/05	Galway (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
16/05	FC Treaty United (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	0-0	1-0	4	2	W

Waterford FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Sligo Rovers (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
15/08	Galway (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
08/08	Bohemians Dublin (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	0-0	2-2	2	5	D
25/07	Shamrock Rovers (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
18/07	Peamount Utd (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	1-4	3-5	0	1	L
11/07	Shelbourne (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	0-3	0-3	4	1	L
27/06	Cork City (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	0-0	0-0	13	1	D
20/06	Galway (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	0-1	1-1	1	3	D
26/05	Shamrock Rovers (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
23/05	Bohemians Dublin (W) Republic of Ireland National League Women	0-0	0-0	0	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athlone Town (W) vs Waterford FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athlone Town (W) win (84%). Probabilities: Athlone Town (W) 84%, draw 10%, Waterford FC (W) 5%.

How many goals are expected in Athlone Town (W) vs Waterford FC (W)?

The model expects 3.7 goals (Athlone Town (W) 2.85 · Waterford FC (W) 0.85), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Athlone Town (W) vs Waterford FC (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.