Prediction: Derry City vs Waterford FC
Expected goals: 3.52 (Derry City 2.44 · Waterford FC 1.08). The model gives 66% home, 20% draw, 14% away. Over 2.75 goals (57%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 2-1.
On recent form, Derry City is 2-5-3 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Waterford FC 3-3-4 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for Derry City and 2 for Waterford FC, with 1 draw.
| Derry City | Draw | Waterford FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 19% | 14% |
| Market | 65% | 21% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Derry City (rating 1523 vs 1468).
- H2H favours Derry City: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Derry City | Waterford FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 1.9 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.7 | 2.5 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0 | 4.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Derry City 3–1–2 Waterford FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Waterford FC | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Derry City |
| 27/02/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 4-2 HT 0-1 | Waterford FC |
| 17/10/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Waterford FC | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Derry City |
| 04/07/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 7-2 HT 4-0 | Waterford FC |
| 25/04/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Waterford FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Derry City |
| 28/02/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Waterford FC |
Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 21 | 47 |
| 2 | Bohemians Dublin | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 38 | 27 | 40 |
| 3 | St Patricks | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 35 | 19 | 38 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 32 | 35 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 23 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 33 | 34 | 31 |
| 6 | Derry City | 24 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 30 | 27 | 29 |
| 7 | Galway United | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 34 | 24 |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 38 | 22 |
| 9 | Sligo Rovers | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 35 | 20 |
| 10 | Waterford FC | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 44 | 17 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Derry City | Waterford FC |
|---|---|---|
| Drogheda United | 2-0 W | 3-3 D |
| Shamrock Rovers | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Dundalk | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Shelbourne | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| St Patricks | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Derry City (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derry City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 19/06 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 25/05 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 22/05 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 10 | D |
| 15/05 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 08/05 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 04/05 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
Waterford FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 19/06 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 12/06 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 22/05 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 18/05 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 15/05 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 08/05 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 04/05 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 3-3 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 01/05 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derry City vs Waterford FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Derry City win (66%). Probabilities: Derry City 66%, draw 20%, Waterford FC 14%.
How many goals are expected in Derry City vs Waterford FC?
The model expects 3.52 goals (Derry City 2.44 · Waterford FC 1.08), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Waterford FC?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.