Prediction: Dundalk vs Drogheda United
Expected goals: 2.88 (Dundalk 1.82 · Drogheda United 1.06). The model gives 54% home, 25% draw, 21% away. Under 3 goals (54%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Dundalk with 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses over 10 games; Drogheda United has piled up 1-3-6 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Dundalk won 1 and Drogheda United 1, with 4 draws.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dundalk (rating 1496 vs 1436).
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dundalk | Drogheda United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.6 | 1.9 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.3 | 4.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dundalk 1–4–1 Drogheda United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Drogheda United | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Dundalk |
| 20/02/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Dundalk | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Drogheda United |
| 30/01/26 Club Friendly List | Drogheda United | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Dundalk |
| 31/01/25 Europe Friendlies | Dundalk | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Drogheda United |
| 01/11/24 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Drogheda United | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Dundalk |
| 19/07/24 Republic of Ireland FAI Cup | Drogheda United | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Dundalk |
Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 22 | 50 |
| 2 | Bohemians Dublin | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 40 | 27 | 43 |
| 3 | St Patricks | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 38 | 19 | 41 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 37 | 34 | 35 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 24 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 35 | 35 | 34 |
| 6 | Derry City | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 31 | 29 |
| 7 | Galway United | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 37 | 24 |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 40 | 22 |
| 9 | Waterford FC | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 32 | 46 | 20 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 37 | 20 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Dundalk | Drogheda United |
|---|---|---|
| Shelbourne | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Waterford FC | 2-3 L | 3-3 D |
| Bohemians Dublin | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Derry City | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| St Patricks | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Shamrock Rovers | 1-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Dundalk (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dundalk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 26/06 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 19/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 12/06 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/05 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 22/05 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 15/05 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 04/05 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 3-3 | 11 | 5 | D |
Drogheda United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 26/06 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 19/06 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/06 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/05 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 22/05 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 18/05 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 15/05 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 04/05 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Dundalk win (54%). Probabilities: Dundalk 54%, draw 25%, Drogheda United 21%.
How many goals are expected in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Dundalk 1.82 · Drogheda United 1.06), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.