Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 21/08, 20:45
Prediction: Bohemians Dublin vs Derry City
Team pages: Bohemians Dublin · Derry City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.91Total
Bohemians Dublin1.74
Derry City1.16
1X2
Bohemians Dublin
Draw
Derry City
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bohemians Dublin
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Derry City
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bohemians Dublin
2–2–2
Derry City
(6 last)
- Derry City4-1Bohemians Dublin
- Bohemians Dublin1-1Derry City
- Derry City0-1Bohemians Dublin
- Bohemians Dublin3-4Derry City
- Derry City1-1Bohemians Dublin
- Bohemians Dublin1-0Derry City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bohemians Dublin 1488 · Derry City 1498
| Bohemians Dublin | Draw | Derry City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bohemians Dublin | Derry City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.4 | 2 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bohemians Dublin 2–2–2 Derry City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Bohemians Dublin |
| 01/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Bohemians Dublin | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Derry City |
| 20/02/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Bohemians Dublin |
| 12/09/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Bohemians Dublin | 3-4 HT 1-2 | Derry City |
| 25/07/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Bohemians Dublin |
| 30/05/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Bohemians Dublin | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Derry City |
Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 43 | 24 | 54 |
| 2 | St Patricks | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 43 | 23 | 47 |
| 3 | Bohemians Dublin | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 42 | 31 | 44 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 42 | 41 | 37 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 36 | 38 | 34 |
| 6 | Derry City | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 35 | 32 | 33 |
| 7 | Galway United | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 33 | 40 | 30 |
| 8 | Waterford FC | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 37 | 48 | 28 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 31 | 43 | 28 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 23 | 45 | 22 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bohemians Dublin | Derry City |
|---|---|---|
| Waterford FC | 1-3 L | 2-4 L |
| Drogheda United | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| St Patricks | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Bohemians Dublin (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bohemians Dublin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Midtjylland UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-3 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 06/08 | Midtjylland UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 02/08 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 30/07 | KF Ballkani UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 22/07 | KF Ballkani UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/07 | St Joseph's FC UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 09/07 | St Joseph's FC UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 03/07 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 26/06 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Derry City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | UCD Republic of Ireland FAI Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 07/08 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 30/07 | HNK Rijeka UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 23/07 | HNK Rijeka UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Tolka Rovers Republic of Ireland FAI Intermediate Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 16/07 | CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 09/07 | CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 03/07 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bohemians Dublin vs Derry City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bohemians Dublin win (50%). Probabilities: Bohemians Dublin 50%, draw 26%, Derry City 24%.
How many goals are expected in Bohemians Dublin vs Derry City?
The model expects 2.91 goals (Bohemians Dublin 1.74 · Derry City 1.16), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bohemians Dublin vs Derry City?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.