Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 30/08, 17:00

Prediction: Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers

Team pages: Derry City · Shamrock Rovers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Derry City1.29

Shamrock Rovers1.33

1X2

35% 28% 36%

Derry City Draw Shamrock Rovers

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Derry City 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLDWLDWL

Shamrock Rovers 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDWWDW

Head-to-head

Derry City 3–1–2 Shamrock Rovers (6 last)

Shamrock Rovers1-1Derry City
Derry City1-0Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers1-0Derry City
Shamrock Rovers0-1Derry City
Derry City2-1Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers2-0Derry City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derry City 1488 · Shamrock Rovers 1535

	Derry City	Draw	Shamrock Rovers
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shamrock Rovers (rating 1488 vs 1535).
H2H favours Derry City: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Derry City	Shamrock Rovers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.5	1.5 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.25

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.66
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.42 ★
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.59

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +2’	2.60	3.25	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:29	2.66	3.42	2.59

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Derry City 3–1–2 Shamrock Rovers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/06/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shamrock Rovers	1-1 HT 0-1	Derry City
24/04/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Derry City	1-0 HT 1-0	Shamrock Rovers
06/03/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shamrock Rovers	1-0 HT 0-0	Derry City
31/01/26 Republic of Ireland Super Cup	Shamrock Rovers	0-1 HT 0-1	Derry City
26/10/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Derry City	2-1 HT 1-0	Shamrock Rovers
03/08/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shamrock Rovers	2-0 HT 0-0	Derry City

Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shamrock Rovers	27	16	6	5	43	24	54
2	St Patricks	28	14	8	6	45	23	50
3	Bohemians Dublin	28	13	8	7	47	34	47
4	Dundalk	28	9	10	9	43	43	37
5	Shelbourne	26	8	10	8	36	38	34
6	Derry City	28	7	12	9	38	37	33
7	Galway United	27	8	9	10	35	41	33
8	Waterford FC	28	6	11	11	37	48	29
9	Drogheda United	28	6	10	12	31	45	28
10	Sligo Rovers	28	5	8	15	23	45	23

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derry City	Shamrock Rovers
Bohemians Dublin	3-5 L	2-1 W
Sligo Rovers	2-0 W	2-1 W
St Patricks	1-1 D	1-0 W
Waterford FC	2-4 L	2-0 W
Drogheda United	2-0 W	0-0 D
Galway United	1-2 L	3-1 W
Dundalk	1-2 L	3-2 W
Shelbourne	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shamrock Rovers (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derry City

DLWLDWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	3-5	3	3	L
07/08	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	2-0	10	2	W
02/08	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
03/07	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-4	5	3	L
26/06	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
22/06	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
19/06	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
12/06	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-1	4-1	6	5	W
29/05	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
25/05	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	4	7	D

Shamrock Rovers

LWWLWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	3-2	3-2	1	8	W
31/07	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
03/07	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
26/06	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-0	3-1	2	1	W
22/06	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
19/06	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
12/06	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
29/05	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
25/05	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
22/05	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Shamrock Rovers win (36%). Probabilities: Derry City 35%, draw 28%, Shamrock Rovers 36%.

How many goals are expected in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Derry City 1.29 · Shamrock Rovers 1.33), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.