Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 21/08, 21:00
Prediction: Sligo Rovers vs Waterford FC
Team pages: Sligo Rovers · Waterford FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Sligo Rovers1.28
Waterford FC1.5
1X2
Sligo Rovers
Draw
Waterford FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sligo Rovers
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Waterford FC
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sligo Rovers
4–1–1
Waterford FC
(6 last)
- Waterford FC4-0Sligo Rovers
- Sligo Rovers2-0Waterford FC
- Waterford FC0-0Sligo Rovers
- Waterford FC1-2Sligo Rovers
- Sligo Rovers1-0Waterford FC
- Waterford FC0-4Sligo Rovers
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sligo Rovers 1473 · Waterford FC 1552
| Sligo Rovers | Draw | Waterford FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market | 32% | 27% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Waterford FC (rating 1473 vs 1552).
- H2H favours Sligo Rovers: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sligo Rovers | Waterford FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.6 | 2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 3.6 | 3 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.3 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sligo Rovers 4–1–1 Waterford FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Waterford FC | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Sligo Rovers |
| 18/04/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Sligo Rovers | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Waterford FC |
| 20/02/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Waterford FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sligo Rovers |
| 22/08/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Waterford FC | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Sligo Rovers |
| 14/06/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Sligo Rovers | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Waterford FC |
| 18/04/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Waterford FC | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Sligo Rovers |
Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 43 | 24 | 54 |
| 2 | St Patricks | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 43 | 23 | 47 |
| 3 | Bohemians Dublin | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 42 | 31 | 44 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 42 | 41 | 37 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 36 | 38 | 34 |
| 6 | Derry City | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 35 | 32 | 33 |
| 7 | Galway United | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 33 | 40 | 30 |
| 8 | Waterford FC | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 37 | 48 | 28 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 31 | 43 | 28 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 23 | 45 | 22 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sligo Rovers | Waterford FC |
|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 0-2 L | 4-2 W |
| Dundalk | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Galway United | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Shamrock Rovers | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Shelbourne | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| St Patricks | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 4 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Waterford FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sligo Rovers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland FAI Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 07/08 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 31/07 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 18/07 | Janesboro FC Republic of Ireland FAI Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 14/07 | Coleraine Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 03/07 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 27/06 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 19/06 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
Waterford FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland FAI Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 17/07 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland FAI Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 10/07 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 03/07 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 4-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 26/06 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 19/06 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 12/06 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sligo Rovers vs Waterford FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Waterford FC win (41%). Probabilities: Sligo Rovers 31%, draw 27%, Waterford FC 41%.
How many goals are expected in Sligo Rovers vs Waterford FC?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Sligo Rovers 1.28 · Waterford FC 1.5), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Waterford FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.