Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 21/08, 20:45

Prediction: Drogheda United vs St Patricks

Team pages: Drogheda United · St Patricks

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

Drogheda United0.79

St Patricks1.6

1X2

18% 26% 56%

Drogheda United Draw St Patricks

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

Drogheda United 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLLWWDDDW

St Patricks 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWDLWDDW

Head-to-head

Drogheda United 0–1–5 St Patricks (6 last)

St Patricks2-0Drogheda United
Drogheda United1-3St Patricks
St Patricks4-1Drogheda United
St Patricks2-0Drogheda United
Drogheda United0-1St Patricks
St Patricks0-0Drogheda United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Drogheda United 1482 · St Patricks 1527

	Drogheda United	Draw	St Patricks
Our model	17%	27%	55%
Market	18%	25%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Patricks (rating 1482 vs 1527).
H2H favours St Patricks: 5-1-0.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Drogheda United	St Patricks
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	2.6 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.60

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.82 ★
2	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
05:03 +9’	5.00	3.60	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:11 +1’	4.79	3.86	1.69
22:17 +4’	4.74▼	3.82▼	1.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Drogheda United 0–1–5 St Patricks

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	St Patricks	2-0 HT 1-0	Drogheda United
17/04/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Drogheda United	1-3 HT 0-3	St Patricks
13/03/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	St Patricks	4-1 HT 0-1	Drogheda United
05/09/25 Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup	St Patricks	2-0 HT 1-0	Drogheda United
22/08/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Drogheda United	0-1 HT 0-0	St Patricks
13/06/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	St Patricks	0-0 HT 0-0	Drogheda United

Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shamrock Rovers	27	16	6	5	43	24	54
2	St Patricks	27	13	8	6	43	23	47
3	Bohemians Dublin	27	12	8	7	42	31	44
4	Dundalk	27	9	10	8	42	41	37
5	Shelbourne	26	8	10	8	36	38	34
6	Derry City	27	7	12	8	35	32	33
7	Galway United	26	7	9	10	33	40	30
8	Waterford FC	27	6	10	11	37	48	28
9	Drogheda United	27	6	10	11	31	43	28
10	Sligo Rovers	27	5	7	15	23	45	22

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Drogheda United	St Patricks
Galway United	0-0 D	3-0 W
Sligo Rovers	2-2 D	2-0 W
Dundalk	2-1 W	1-1 D
Bohemians Dublin	0-2 L	0-2 L
Derry City	0-2 L	1-1 D
Shelbourne	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: St Patricks (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Drogheda United

LDLLWWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	College Corinthians FC Republic of Ireland FAI Cup	3-0	3-0	9	3	W
07/08	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
31/07	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/07	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-2	2-2	9	3	D
17/07	Lucan United Republic of Ireland FAI Cup	2-0	4-0	8	4	W
10/07	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-1	5	2	W
03/07	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
26/06	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
19/06	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
12/06	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	0-2	5	3	L

St Patricks

WLLWDLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-0	2-1	5	8	W
02/08	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
24/07	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
17/07	Wexford FC Republic of Ireland FAI Cup	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
14/07	Doncaster Europe Friendlies	0-3	2-4	4	1	L
10/07	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
03/07	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	3-0	3-0	8	3	W
30/06	Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
26/06	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
19/06	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	2-0	14	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Drogheda United vs St Patricks?

According to our model, the most likely result is an St Patricks win (56%). Probabilities: Drogheda United 18%, draw 26%, St Patricks 56%.

How many goals are expected in Drogheda United vs St Patricks?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Drogheda United 0.79 · St Patricks 1.6), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs St Patricks?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.