Prediction: Columbus Crew vs New York City FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
Columbus Crew1.78
New York City FC1.25
1X2
Columbus Crew
Draw
New York City FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Columbus Crew
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
New York City FC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Columbus Crew
2–2–2
New York City FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Columbus Crew 1499 · New York City FC 1483
| Columbus Crew | Draw | New York City FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Columbus Crew | New York City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.1 | 1.3 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Columbus Crew 2–2–2 New York City FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 USA US Open Cup | Columbus Crew | 1-0 HT 0-0 | New York City FC |
| 10/05/26 USA MLS | New York City FC | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Columbus Crew |
| 18/09/25 USA MLS | New York City FC | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Columbus Crew |
| 23/03/25 USA MLS | Columbus Crew | 0-0 HT 0-0 | New York City FC |
| 01/09/24 USA MLS | Columbus Crew | 4-2 HT 1-1 | New York City FC |
| 18/08/24 Leagues Cup | Columbus Crew | 1-1 HT 1-1 | New York City FC |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 11 | 33 |
| 2 | Inter Miami CF | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 28 | 31 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 16 | 26 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 25 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 32 | 22 |
| 6 | Charlotte FC | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 23 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 37 | 20 |
| 8 | New York City FC | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 21 | 19 |
| 9 | DC United | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 25 | 18 |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 23 | 16 |
| 11 | CF Montreal | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 31 | 14 |
| 12 | Orlando City SC | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 44 | 14 |
| 13 | Toronto FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 29 | 14 |
| 14 | Atlanta United | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 11 |
| 15 | Philadelphia Union | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 7 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Columbus Crew
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Burnley Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Atlanta United USA MLS |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | New York City FC USA US Open Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Philadelphia Union USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 14/05 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | New York City FC USA MLS |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Minnesota United USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 30/04 | One Knoxville SC USA US Open Cup |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Philadelphia Union USA MLS |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 23/04 | LA Galaxy USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
New York City FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Nashville SC USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Columbus Crew USA US Open Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 14/05 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 10/05 | Columbus Crew USA MLS |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | DC United USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 30/04 | New York Red Bulls USA US Open Cup |
2-1 | 3-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | CF Montreal USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 23/04 | FC Cincinnati USA MLS |
2-1 | 4-4 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Columbus Crew vs New York City FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Columbus Crew win (49%). Probabilities: Columbus Crew 49%, draw 26%, New York City FC 26%.
How many goals are expected in Columbus Crew vs New York City FC?
The model expects 3.04 goals (Columbus Crew 1.78 · New York City FC 1.25), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Columbus Crew vs New York City FC?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.