Prediction: New England Revolution vs Toronto FC
| New England Revolution | Draw | Toronto FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 24% | 21% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New England Revolution (rating 1507 vs 1434).
- H2H favours New England Revolution: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New England Revolution | Toronto FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.7 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.4 | 1.5 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 5.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New England Revolution 3–1–2 Toronto FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/25 USA MLS | New England Revolution | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC |
| 03/05/25 USA MLS | Toronto FC | 0-2 HT 0-2 | New England Revolution |
| 21/04/24 USA MLS | Toronto FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | New England Revolution |
| 03/03/24 USA MLS | New England Revolution | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Toronto FC |
| 25/06/23 USA MLS | New England Revolution | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Toronto FC |
| 07/05/23 USA MLS | Toronto FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | New England Revolution |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 11 | 33 |
| 2 | Inter Miami CF | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 28 | 31 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 16 | 26 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 25 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 32 | 22 |
| 6 | Charlotte FC | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 23 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 37 | 20 |
| 8 | New York City FC | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 21 | 19 |
| 9 | DC United | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 25 | 18 |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 23 | 16 |
| 11 | CF Montreal | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 31 | 14 |
| 12 | Orlando City SC | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 44 | 14 |
| 13 | Toronto FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 29 | 14 |
| 14 | Atlanta United | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 11 |
| 15 | Philadelphia Union | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 7 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | New England Revolution | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| Charlotte FC | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Philadelphia Union | 2-1 W | 3-3 D |
| Inter Miami CF | 1-1 D | 2-4 L |
| Atlanta United | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: New England Revolution (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New England Revolution
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Minnesota United USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | Nashville SC USA MLS |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Philadelphia Union USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 30/04 | Orlando City SC USA US Open Cup |
2-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Inter Miami CF USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 23/04 | Atlanta United USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Columbus Crew USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 15/04 | Rhode Island FC USA US Open Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
Toronto FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Chicago Fire USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Inter Miami CF USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/05 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Championships |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Atlanta United USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 23/04 | Philadelphia Union USA MLS |
0-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 18/04 | Austin FC USA MLS |
0-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 11/04 | FC Cincinnati USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 04/04 | Colorado Rapids USA MLS |
0-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in New England Revolution vs Toronto FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a New England Revolution win (54%). Probabilities: New England Revolution 54%, draw 25%, Toronto FC 21%.
How many goals are expected in New England Revolution vs Toronto FC?
The model expects 3.03 goals (New England Revolution 1.9 · Toronto FC 1.12), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in New England Revolution vs Toronto FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.