Prediction: Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.44Total
Philadelphia Union2.14
New York Red Bulls1.3
1X2
Philadelphia Union
Draw
New York Red Bulls
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Philadelphia Union
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
New York Red Bulls
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Philadelphia Union
4–1–1
New York Red Bulls
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Philadelphia Union 1460 · New York Red Bulls 1496
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | New York Red Bulls | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Market | 56% | 23% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Philadelphia Union: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Philadelphia Union | New York Red Bulls | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.1 | 1.8 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.4 | 2.2 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Union 4–1–1 New York Red Bulls
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/25 USA MLS | New York Red Bulls | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Philadelphia Union |
| 14/08/25 USA US Open Cup | Philadelphia Union | 3-2 HT 1-1 | New York Red Bulls |
| 13/07/25 USA MLS | Philadelphia Union | 2-0 HT 2-0 | New York Red Bulls |
| 01/09/24 USA MLS | New York Red Bulls | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Philadelphia Union |
| 07/07/24 USA MLS | Philadelphia Union | 0-0 HT 0-0 | New York Red Bulls |
| 04/09/23 USA MLS | Philadelphia Union | 4-1 HT 1-1 | New York Red Bulls |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 11 | 33 |
| 2 | Inter Miami CF | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 28 | 31 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 16 | 26 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 25 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 32 | 22 |
| 6 | Charlotte FC | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 23 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 37 | 20 |
| 8 | New York City FC | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 21 | 19 |
| 9 | DC United | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 25 | 18 |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 23 | 16 |
| 11 | CF Montreal | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 31 | 14 |
| 12 | Orlando City SC | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 44 | 14 |
| 13 | Toronto FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 29 | 14 |
| 14 | Atlanta United | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 11 |
| 15 | Philadelphia Union | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 7 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Philadelphia Union | New York Red Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| DC United | 0-0 D | 4-4 D |
| CF Montreal | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Philadelphia Union
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05 | Inter Miami CF USA MLS |
4-4 | 4-6 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Columbus Crew USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 14/05 | Orlando City SC USA MLS |
0-2 | 3-4 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | New England Revolution USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Nashville SC USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Columbus Crew USA MLS |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/04 | Toronto FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 19/04 | DC United USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | CF Montreal USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 05/04 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
New York Red Bulls
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Sporting Kansas City USA MLS |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | New York City FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 14/05 | Columbus Crew USA MLS |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Chicago Fire USA MLS |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | FC Dallas USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 30/04 | New York City FC USA US Open Cup |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Cincinnati USA MLS |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 23/04 | DC United USA MLS |
2-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | CF Montreal USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 16/04 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA US Open Cup |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Philadelphia Union win (56%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Union 56%, draw 23%, New York Red Bulls 22%.
How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
The model expects 3.44 goals (Philadelphia Union 2.14 · New York Red Bulls 1.3), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.