Basketball · Uruguay Liga · 06/11, 01:30
Prediction: Penarol Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting
Team pages: Penarol Montevideo · Defensor Sporting
Prediction summary
Estimated points
161.7Total
Penarol Montevideo88.7
Defensor Sporting73
1X2
Penarol Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Recent form · 10 last
Penarol Montevideo
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Defensor Sporting
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Penarol Montevideo
5–1
Defensor Sporting
(6 last)
- Penarol Montevideo93-81Defensor Sporting
- Defensor Sporting61-81Penarol Montevideo
- Penarol Montevideo101-51Defensor Sporting
- Defensor Sporting92-84Penarol Montevideo
- Penarol Montevideo88-80Defensor Sporting
- Defensor Sporting81-84Penarol Montevideo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Penarol Montevideo 1659 · Defensor Sporting 1466
| Penarol Montevideo | Defensor Sporting | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 84% | 16% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
161.7 points · Bet365 line 164.5 · -2.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points161.7Penarol Montevideo 88.7 · Defensor Sporting 73
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penarol Montevideo (rating 1659 vs 1466).
- Penarol Montevideo is a clear favourite (87% market).
- H2H favours Penarol Montevideo: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Penarol Montevideo | Defensor Sporting | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 89.2 / 78.6 | 77.5 / 80.8 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 93.4 / 78.4 | 77.2 / 79.6 |
| Est. result | 89 | 73 |
Est. total161.7
Line O/U164.5
Diff.2.8
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Penarol Montevideo 5–0–1 Defensor Sporting
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/26 Uruguay Liga | Penarol Montevideo | 93-81 | Defensor Sporting |
| 23/05/26 Uruguay Liga | Defensor Sporting | 61-81 | Penarol Montevideo |
| 20/05/26 Uruguay Liga | Penarol Montevideo | 101-51 | Defensor Sporting |
| 12/04/26 Uruguay Liga | Defensor Sporting | 92-84 | Penarol Montevideo |
| 13/03/26 Uruguay Liga | Penarol Montevideo | 88-80 | Defensor Sporting |
| 05/02/26 Uruguay Liga | Defensor Sporting | 81-84 | Penarol Montevideo |
Standings · Uruguay Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Goes | 5 | 4 | 1 | 462 | 431 | 9 |
| 2 | Bigua | 5 | 4 | 1 | 447 | 420 | 9 |
| 3 | Malvin | 5 | 3 | 2 | 395 | 408 | 8 |
| 4 | Penarol Montevideo | 3 | 3 | 0 | 280 | 229 | 6 |
| 5 | Aguada | 5 | 3 | 2 | 392 | 379 | 6 |
| 6 | Union Atletica | 5 | 1 | 4 | 387 | 411 | 6 |
| 7 | CA Atenas Montevideo | 5 | 1 | 4 | 355 | 433 | 6 |
| 8 | Urunday Universitario | 5 | 1 | 4 | 408 | 420 | 6 |
| 9 | Defensor Sporting | 3 | 2 | 1 | 244 | 224 | 5 |
| 10 | Larranaga | 5 | 2 | 3 | 423 | 426 | 4 |
| 11 | Nacional | 3 | 1 | 2 | 281 | 284 | 4 |
| 12 | Hebraica Macabi | 3 | 1 | 2 | 244 | 253 | 4 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Penarol Montevideo | Defensor Sporting |
|---|---|---|
| Malvin | 101-76 W | 85-78 W |
| Urunday Universitario | 91-79 W | 79-71 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Penarol Montevideo (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Penarol Montevideo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Union Atletica Uruguay Liga |
88-74 | W |
| 29/10 | Malvin Uruguay Liga |
101-76 | W |
| 22/10 | Urunday Universitario Uruguay Liga |
91-79 | W |
| 23/06 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
107-92 | W |
| 20/06 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
80-71 | W |
| 17/06 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
81-92 | L |
| 13/06 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
71-78 | L |
| 04/06 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
99-82 | W |
| 27/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Liga |
93-81 | W |
| 23/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Liga |
81-61 | W |
Defensor Sporting
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Urunday Universitario Uruguay Liga |
79-71 | W |
| 29/10 | Bigua Uruguay Liga |
82-89 | L |
| 20/10 | Goes Uruguay Liga |
83-64 | W |
| 27/05 | Penarol Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
81-93 | L |
| 23/05 | Penarol Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
61-81 | L |
| 20/05 | Penarol Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
51-101 | L |
| 16/05 | Malvin Uruguay Liga |
85-78 | W |
| 13/05 | Malvin Uruguay Liga |
81-83 | L |
| 10/05 | Malvin Uruguay Liga |
80-58 | W |
| 07/05 | Malvin Uruguay Liga |
92-90 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Penarol Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our model gives 87% to Penarol Montevideo.
How many points are expected in Penarol Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
The model estimates 161.7 total points (Penarol Montevideo 88.7 · Defensor Sporting 73).