Basketball · Uruguay Liga · 10/11, 01:30
Prediction: Bigua vs Nacional
Prediction summary
Estimated points
180.6Total
Bigua90.6
Nacional89.9
1X2
Even — no clear favourite
Bigua
Nacional
The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.
Recent form · 10 last
Bigua
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Nacional
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bigua
0–6
Nacional
(6 last)
- Nacional100-78Bigua
- Bigua82-105Nacional
- Nacional98-95Bigua
- Nacional97-73Bigua
- Bigua93-110Nacional
- Bigua96-102Nacional
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bigua 1481 · Nacional 1519
| Bigua | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
180.6 points · Bet365 line 179.5 · +1.1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points180.6Bigua 90.6 · Nacional 89.9
Match keys
- H2H favours Nacional: 6-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Bigua | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 87.4 / 88.6 | 92.1 / 89.1 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 89.4 / 84 | 90 / 91.8 |
| Est. result | 91 | 90 |
Est. total180.6
Line O/U179.5
Diff.1.1
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bigua 0–0–6 Nacional
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 Uruguay Liga | Nacional | 100-78 | Bigua |
| 09/05/26 Uruguay Liga | Bigua | 82-105 | Nacional |
| 06/05/26 Uruguay Liga | Nacional | 98-95 | Bigua |
| 24/01/26 Uruguay Liga | Nacional | 97-73 | Bigua |
| 04/11/25 Uruguay Liga | Bigua | 93-110 | Nacional |
| 06/03/25 Uruguay Liga | Bigua | 96-102 | Nacional |
Standings · Uruguay Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Goes | 5 | 4 | 1 | 462 | 431 | 9 |
| 2 | Bigua | 5 | 4 | 1 | 447 | 420 | 9 |
| 3 | Penarol Montevideo | 4 | 4 | 0 | 364 | 294 | 8 |
| 4 | Malvin | 5 | 3 | 2 | 395 | 408 | 8 |
| 5 | Aguada | 5 | 3 | 2 | 392 | 379 | 6 |
| 6 | CA Atenas Montevideo | 5 | 1 | 4 | 355 | 433 | 6 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 4 | 2 | 2 | 309 | 308 | 6 |
| 8 | Hebraica Macabi | 4 | 2 | 2 | 327 | 331 | 6 |
| 9 | Urunday Universitario | 5 | 1 | 4 | 408 | 420 | 6 |
| 10 | Union Atletica | 5 | 1 | 4 | 387 | 411 | 6 |
| 11 | Nacional | 4 | 1 | 3 | 359 | 367 | 5 |
| 12 | Larranaga | 5 | 2 | 3 | 423 | 426 | 4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bigua
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Malvin Uruguay Liga |
73-87 | L |
| 29/10 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Liga |
89-82 | W |
| 27/10 | Urunday Universitario Uruguay Liga |
99-91 | W |
| 24/10 | Larranaga Uruguay Liga |
94-74 | W |
| 20/10 | Hebraica Macabi Uruguay Liga |
92-86 | W |
| 12/05 | Nacional Uruguay Liga |
78-100 | L |
| 09/05 | Nacional Uruguay Liga |
82-105 | L |
| 06/05 | Nacional Uruguay Liga |
95-98 | L |
| 24/03 | Welcome Uruguay Liga |
91-87 | W |
| 21/03 | Union Atletica Uruguay Liga |
81-76 | W |
Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Hebraica Macabi Uruguay Liga |
78-83 | L |
| 27/10 | Goes Uruguay Liga |
110-124 | L |
| 23/10 | CA Atenas Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
90-77 | W |
| 21/10 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
81-83 | L |
| 29/05 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
91-92 | L |
| 26/05 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
74-87 | L |
| 22/05 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
109-89 | W |
| 19/05 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
83-96 | L |
| 12/05 | Bigua Uruguay Liga |
100-78 | W |
| 09/05 | Bigua Uruguay Liga |
105-82 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bigua vs Nacional?
Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Bigua 52% · Nacional 48%).
How many points are expected in Bigua vs Nacional?
The model estimates 180.6 total points (Bigua 90.6 · Nacional 89.9).