Basketball · Uruguay Liga · 12/11, 01:30
Prediction: Penarol Montevideo vs Aguada
Team pages: Penarol Montevideo · Aguada
Prediction summary
Estimated points
168.7Total
Penarol Montevideo88.6
Aguada80.1
1X2
Penarol Montevideo
Aguada
Recent form · 10 last
Penarol Montevideo
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Aguada
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Penarol Montevideo
4–2
Aguada
(6 last)
- Aguada92-107Penarol Montevideo
- Penarol Montevideo80-71Aguada
- Aguada92-81Penarol Montevideo
- Aguada78-71Penarol Montevideo
- Penarol Montevideo99-82Aguada
- Penarol Montevideo103-95Aguada
Model analysis
Estimated points168.7Penarol Montevideo 88.6 · Aguada 80.1
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penarol Montevideo (rating 1625 vs 1539).
- Penarol Montevideo is a clear favourite (73% market).
- H2H favours Penarol Montevideo: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Penarol Montevideo | Aguada | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 89.5 / 79 | 80.7 / 81.7 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 94.2 / 77.2 | 78.4 / 75.8 |
| Est. result | 89 | 80 |
Est. total168.7
Line O/U165.5
Diff.3.2
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Penarol Montevideo 4–0–2 Aguada
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/26 Uruguay Liga | Aguada | 92-107 | Penarol Montevideo |
| 20/06/26 Uruguay Liga | Penarol Montevideo | 80-71 | Aguada |
| 17/06/26 Uruguay Liga | Aguada | 92-81 | Penarol Montevideo |
| 13/06/26 Uruguay Liga | Aguada | 78-71 | Penarol Montevideo |
| 04/06/26 Uruguay Liga | Penarol Montevideo | 99-82 | Aguada |
| 18/04/26 Uruguay Liga | Penarol Montevideo | 103-95 | Aguada |
Standings · Uruguay Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Goes | 5 | 4 | 1 | 462 | 431 | 9 |
| 2 | Bigua | 5 | 4 | 1 | 447 | 420 | 9 |
| 3 | Penarol Montevideo | 4 | 4 | 0 | 364 | 294 | 8 |
| 4 | Malvin | 5 | 3 | 2 | 395 | 408 | 8 |
| 5 | Aguada | 5 | 3 | 2 | 392 | 379 | 6 |
| 6 | CA Atenas Montevideo | 5 | 1 | 4 | 355 | 433 | 6 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 4 | 2 | 2 | 309 | 308 | 6 |
| 8 | Hebraica Macabi | 4 | 2 | 2 | 327 | 331 | 6 |
| 9 | Urunday Universitario | 5 | 1 | 4 | 408 | 420 | 6 |
| 10 | Union Atletica | 5 | 1 | 4 | 387 | 411 | 6 |
| 11 | Nacional | 4 | 1 | 3 | 359 | 367 | 5 |
| 12 | Larranaga | 5 | 2 | 3 | 423 | 426 | 4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Penarol Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Liga |
84-65 | W |
| 03/11 | Union Atletica Uruguay Liga |
88-74 | W |
| 29/10 | Malvin Uruguay Liga |
101-76 | W |
| 22/10 | Urunday Universitario Uruguay Liga |
91-79 | W |
| 23/06 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
107-92 | W |
| 20/06 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
80-71 | W |
| 17/06 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
81-92 | L |
| 13/06 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
71-78 | L |
| 04/06 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
99-82 | W |
| 27/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Liga |
93-81 | W |
Aguada
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Goes Uruguay Liga |
84-87 | L |
| 31/10 | CA Atenas Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
84-57 | W |
| 28/10 | Larranaga Uruguay Liga |
75-91 | L |
| 24/10 | Union Atletica Uruguay Liga |
66-63 | W |
| 21/10 | Nacional Uruguay Liga |
83-81 | W |
| 23/06 | Penarol Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
92-107 | L |
| 20/06 | Penarol Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
71-80 | L |
| 17/06 | Penarol Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
92-81 | W |
| 13/06 | Penarol Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
78-71 | W |
| 04/06 | Penarol Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
82-99 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Penarol Montevideo vs Aguada?
Our model gives 73% to Penarol Montevideo.
How many points are expected in Penarol Montevideo vs Aguada?
The model estimates 168.7 total points (Penarol Montevideo 88.6 · Aguada 80.1).