Basketball · Uruguay Liga · 13/11, 01:30
Prediction: Nacional vs Urunday Universitario
Team pages: Nacional · Urunday Universitario
Prediction summary
Estimated points
174.5Total
Nacional90.1
Urunday Universitario84.4
1X2
Nacional
Urunday Universitario
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Urunday Universitario
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nacional
5–1
Urunday Universitario
(6 last)
- Urunday Universitario97-94Nacional
- Nacional104-70Urunday Universitario
- Nacional99-79Urunday Universitario
- Urunday Universitario72-90Nacional
- Nacional70-68Urunday Universitario
- Urunday Universitario82-85Nacional
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nacional 1478 · Urunday Universitario 1454
| Nacional | Urunday Universitario | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
174.5 points · Bet365 line 176.5 · -2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points174.5Nacional 90.1 · Urunday Universitario 84.4
Match keys
- Nacional is a clear favourite (66% market).
- H2H favours Nacional: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Nacional | Urunday Universitario | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 90.4 / 91.9 | 78.3 / 85.3 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 89.4 / 95.4 | 79.8 / 78.6 |
| Est. result | 90 | 84 |
Est. total174.5
Line O/U176.5
Diff.2
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional 5–0–1 Urunday Universitario
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/26 Uruguay Liga | Urunday Universitario | 97-94 | Nacional |
| 08/11/25 Uruguay Liga | Nacional | 104-70 | Urunday Universitario |
| 11/02/25 Uruguay Liga | Nacional | 99-79 | Urunday Universitario |
| 20/12/24 Uruguay Liga | Urunday Universitario | 72-90 | Nacional |
| 13/01/23 Uruguay Liga | Nacional | 70-68 | Urunday Universitario |
| 01/11/22 Uruguay Liga | Urunday Universitario | 82-85 | Nacional |
Standings · Uruguay Liga
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Goes | 6 | 5 | 1 | 561 | 502 | 11 |
| 2 | Bigua | 6 | 5 | 1 | 557 | 508 | 11 |
| 3 | Malvin | 6 | 3 | 3 | 459 | 478 | 9 |
| 4 | Penarol Montevideo | 4 | 4 | 0 | 364 | 294 | 8 |
| 5 | Hebraica Macabi | 5 | 3 | 2 | 423 | 407 | 8 |
| 6 | Urunday Universitario | 6 | 2 | 4 | 478 | 484 | 8 |
| 7 | CA Atenas Montevideo | 6 | 1 | 5 | 426 | 532 | 7 |
| 8 | Union Atletica | 6 | 1 | 5 | 463 | 507 | 7 |
| 9 | Aguada | 5 | 3 | 2 | 392 | 379 | 6 |
| 10 | Nacional | 5 | 1 | 4 | 447 | 477 | 6 |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 4 | 2 | 2 | 309 | 308 | 6 |
| 12 | Larranaga | 5 | 2 | 3 | 423 | 426 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nacional | Urunday Universitario |
|---|---|---|
| Bigua | 88-110 L | 91-99 L |
| Hebraica Macabi | 78-83 L | 77-80 L |
| Goes | 110-124 L | 88-84 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Urunday Universitario (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Bigua Uruguay Liga |
88-110 | L |
| 07/11 | Hebraica Macabi Uruguay Liga |
78-83 | L |
| 27/10 | Goes Uruguay Liga |
110-124 | L |
| 23/10 | CA Atenas Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
90-77 | W |
| 21/10 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
81-83 | L |
| 29/05 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
91-92 | L |
| 26/05 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
74-87 | L |
| 22/05 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
109-89 | W |
| 19/05 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
83-96 | L |
| 12/05 | Bigua Uruguay Liga |
100-78 | W |
Urunday Universitario
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Malvin Uruguay Liga |
70-64 | W |
| 03/11 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Liga |
71-79 | L |
| 30/10 | Larranaga Uruguay Liga |
90-71 | W |
| 27/10 | Bigua Uruguay Liga |
91-99 | L |
| 25/10 | Hebraica Macabi Uruguay Liga |
77-80 | L |
| 22/10 | Penarol Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
79-91 | L |
| 12/05 | Penarol Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
64-87 | L |
| 09/05 | Penarol Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
86-109 | L |
| 06/05 | Penarol Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
67-89 | L |
| 24/03 | Goes Uruguay Liga |
88-84 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional vs Urunday Universitario?
Our model gives 66% to Nacional.
How many points are expected in Nacional vs Urunday Universitario?
The model estimates 174.5 total points (Nacional 90.1 · Urunday Universitario 84.4).