Basketball · Mexico Liga ABE · 24/10, 23:00

Prediction: Tec Mty Toluca vs UP Mexico

Team pages: Tec Mty Toluca · UP Mexico

Prediction summary

Estimated points

154.2Total

Tec Mty Toluca84.4

UP Mexico69.9

1X2

85% 15%

Tec Mty Toluca UP Mexico

Recent form · 10 last

Tec Mty Toluca 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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UP Mexico 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tec Mty Toluca 4–2 UP Mexico (6 last)

Tec Mty Toluca81-59UP Mexico
Tec Mty Toluca72-76UP Mexico
UP Mexico63-69Tec Mty Toluca
Tec Mty Toluca70-63UP Mexico
UP Mexico45-39Tec Mty Toluca
Tec Mty Toluca65-50UP Mexico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tec Mty Toluca 1568 · UP Mexico 1388

	Tec Mty Toluca	UP Mexico
Our model	83%	17%
Market	86%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 154.2 points · Bet365 line 149.5 · +4.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points154.2Tec Mty Toluca 84.4 · UP Mexico 69.9

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tec Mty Toluca (rating 1568 vs 1388).
Tec Mty Toluca is a clear favourite (85% market).
H2H favours Tec Mty Toluca: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Tec Mty Toluca	UP Mexico
Points F\|A (Last 10)	80.3 / 76.3	66.3 / 82.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	84.4 / 75.2	62.6 / 79.6
Est. result	84	70

Est. total154.2

Line O/U149.5

Diff.4.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.09

26.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-13.5)1.83

2 (+13.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 149.51.83

Under 149.51.83

Diff.: 3 · Est. total: 152.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.09 → 1.09	Bet365 1.09
2	6.75 → 6.75	Bet365 6.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 15%

Time*	1	2
16:23 +42’	1.09	6.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
14:55 +72’	1.06	4.86

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tec Mty Toluca 4–0–2 UP Mexico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Mexico Liga ABE	Tec Mty Toluca	81-59	UP Mexico
29/03/25 Mexico Liga ABE	Tec Mty Toluca	72-76	UP Mexico
14/11/24 Mexico Liga ABE	UP Mexico	63-69	Tec Mty Toluca
02/03/24 Mexico Liga ABE	Tec Mty Toluca	70-63	UP Mexico
14/10/23 Mexico Liga ABE	UP Mexico	45-39	Tec Mty Toluca
11/02/23 Mexico Liga ABE	Tec Mty Toluca	65-50	UP Mexico

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tec Mty Toluca	UP Mexico
UANL	79-74 W	78-79 L
Tec Mty Monterrey	56-78 L	41-78 L
UPAEP	68-60 W	63-84 L
Tec Mty Santa Fe	88-87 W	72-81 L
Universidad Interamericana	90-88 W	64-74 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Tec Mty Toluca (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tec Mty Toluca

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/10	UDLAP Mexico Liga ABE	79-55	W
17/10	UACJ Mexico Liga ABE	85-68	W
03/10	UMAD Mexico Liga ABE	88-77	W
26/09	Universidad Montrer Mexico Liga ABE	77-61	W
26/09	Anahuac Queretaro Mexico Liga ABE	93-115	L
20/09	UANL Mexico Liga ABE	79-74	W
19/09	Tec Mty Monterrey Mexico Liga ABE	56-78	L
03/05	UPAEP Mexico Liga ABE	68-60	W
30/04	Tec Mty Santa Fe Mexico Liga ABE	88-87	W
28/04	Universidad Interamericana Mexico Liga ABE	90-88	W

UP Mexico

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/10	Tec Mty Santa Fe Mexico Liga ABE	72-81	L
17/10	Tec Mty Monterrey Mexico Liga ABE	41-78	L
17/10	UANL Mexico Liga ABE	78-79	L
03/10	CEU Mexico Liga ABE	45-80	L
25/09	Tec Mty Puebla Mexico Liga ABE	77-80	L
19/09	Anahuac Xalapa Mexico Liga ABE	78-81	L
11/04	Universidad Interamericana Mexico Liga ABE	64-74	L
11/04	UPAEP Mexico Liga ABE	63-84	L
21/03	CEU Mexico Liga ABE	69-85	L
20/03	Tec Mty Monterrey Mexico Liga ABE	76-99	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tec Mty Toluca vs UP Mexico?

Our model gives 85% to Tec Mty Toluca.

How many points are expected in Tec Mty Toluca vs UP Mexico?

The model estimates 154.2 total points (Tec Mty Toluca 84.4 · UP Mexico 69.9).