Basketball · China CBA · 20/10, 13:35

Prediction: Beijing Ducks vs Guangdong Southern Tigers

Prediction summary

Estimated points

177.2Total

Beijing Ducks90.7

Guangdong Southern Tigers86.5

1X2

62% 38%

Beijing Ducks Guangdong Southern Tigers

Recent form · 10 last

Beijing Ducks 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWLLW

Guangdong Southern Tigers 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLWLL

Head-to-head

Beijing Ducks 4–2 Guangdong Southern Tigers (6 last)

Beijing Ducks88-73Guangdong Southern Tigers
Guangdong Southern Tigers102-99Beijing Ducks
Beijing Ducks102-94Guangdong Southern Tigers
Guangdong Southern Tigers93-96Beijing Ducks
Beijing Ducks105-74Guangdong Southern Tigers
Guangdong Southern Tigers106-90Beijing Ducks

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Beijing Ducks 1611 · Guangdong Southern Tigers 1452

	Beijing Ducks	Guangdong Southern Tigers
Our model	81%	19%
Market	57%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 177.2 points · Bet365 line 180.5 · -3.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points177.2Beijing Ducks 90.7 · Guangdong Southern Tigers 86.5

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Beijing Ducks (rating 1611 vs 1452).
H2H favours Beijing Ducks: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Beijing Ducks	Guangdong Southern Tigers
Points F\|A (Last 10)	90.5 / 85.1	88.5 / 91.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	83.2 / 87.4	90.8 / 93
Est. result	91	87

Est. total177.2

Line O/U180.5

Diff.3.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.63

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.83

2 (+4.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 180.51.83

Under 180.51.83

Diff.: 2.65 · Est. total: 177.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.63 → 1.63	Bet365 1.63
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.88 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	2
13:50 +56’	1.63	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
15:43 +3’	1.32	2.99
16:01 +44’	1.34▲	2.88▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Beijing Ducks 4–0–2 Guangdong Southern Tigers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 China CBA	Beijing Ducks	88-73	Guangdong Southern Tigers
09/05/26 China CBA	Guangdong Southern Tigers	102-99	Beijing Ducks
06/05/26 China CBA	Beijing Ducks	102-94	Guangdong Southern Tigers
27/03/26 China CBA	Guangdong Southern Tigers	93-96	Beijing Ducks
01/01/26 China CBA	Beijing Ducks	105-74	Guangdong Southern Tigers
12/12/24 China CBA	Guangdong Southern Tigers	106-90	Beijing Ducks

Standings · China CBA

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Shanghai Sharks	1	1	0	102	68
2	Beijing Royal Fighters	1	1	0	95	71
3	Sichuan Blue Whales	1	1	0	97	85
4	Liaoning Flying Leopards	1	1	0	95	84
5	Guangzhou Long-Lions	1	1	0	90	79
6	Zhejiang Lions	1	1	0	115	109
7	Fujian Sturgeons	1	1	0	89	85
8	Beijing Ducks	1	1	0	84	82
9	Xinjiang Flying Tigers	1	1	0	82	80
10	Nanjing Monkey King	1	1	0	96	95
11	Guangdong Southern Tigers	1	0	1	95	96
12	Jilin Northeast Tigers	1	0	1	82	84
13	Qingdao Eagles	1	0	1	80	82
14	Jiangsu Dragons	1	0	1	85	89
15	Shanxi Loongs	1	0	1	109	115
16	Shandong Hi-Speed	1	0	1	84	95
17	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	1	0	1	79	90
18	Tianjin Pioneers	1	0	1	85	97
19	Ningbo Rockets	1	0	1	71	95
20	Shenzhen Leopards	1	0	1	68	102

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Beijing Ducks

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Jilin Northeast Tigers China CBA	84-82	W
22/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	85-99	L
20/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	66-81	L
17/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	99-88	W
15/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	82-87	L
12/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	88-73	W
09/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	99-102	L
06/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	102-94	W
24/04	Jilin Northeast Tigers China CBA	105-55	W
19/04	Qingdao Eagles China CBA	95-90	W

Guangdong Southern Tigers

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Nanjing Monkey King China CBA	95-96	L
12/05	Beijing Ducks China CBA	73-88	L
09/05	Beijing Ducks China CBA	102-99	W
06/05	Beijing Ducks China CBA	94-102	L
03/05	Guangzhou Long-Lions China CBA	90-80	W
01/05	Guangzhou Long-Lions China CBA	85-64	W
28/04	Guangzhou Long-Lions China CBA	76-93	L
24/04	Fujian Sturgeons China CBA	91-93	L
20/04	Shanxi Loongs China CBA	96-106	L
18/04	Fujian Sturgeons China CBA	83-95	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Beijing Ducks vs Guangdong Southern Tigers?

Our model gives 62% to Beijing Ducks.

How many points are expected in Beijing Ducks vs Guangdong Southern Tigers?

The model estimates 177.2 total points (Beijing Ducks 90.7 · Guangdong Southern Tigers 86.5).