Basketball · China CBA · 30/10, 12:35

Prediction: Jilin Northeast Tigers vs Shenzhen Leopards

Team pages: Jilin Northeast Tigers · Shenzhen Leopards

Prediction summary

Estimated points

179.6Total

Jilin Northeast Tigers90.5

Shenzhen Leopards89.1

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

54% 46%

Jilin Northeast Tigers Shenzhen Leopards

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Jilin Northeast Tigers 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWWW

Shenzhen Leopards 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Jilin Northeast Tigers 2–4 Shenzhen Leopards (6 last)

Jilin Northeast Tigers86-111Shenzhen Leopards
Shenzhen Leopards99-81Jilin Northeast Tigers
Jilin Northeast Tigers88-85Shenzhen Leopards
Shenzhen Leopards118-96Jilin Northeast Tigers
Jilin Northeast Tigers115-112Shenzhen Leopards
Jilin Northeast Tigers116-118Shenzhen Leopards

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jilin Northeast Tigers 1383 · Shenzhen Leopards 1529

	Jilin Northeast Tigers	Shenzhen Leopards
Our model	42%	58%
Market	57%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 179.6 points · Bet365 line 175.5 · +4.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points179.6Jilin Northeast Tigers 90.5 · Shenzhen Leopards 89.1

Match keys

H2H favours Shenzhen Leopards: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Jilin Northeast Tigers	Shenzhen Leopards
Points F\|A (Last 10)	76.8 / 87.7	84.5 / 96
Points F\|A (Last 5)	85.2 / 83	76.8 / 97.8
Est. result	91	89

Est. total179.6

Line O/U175.5

Diff.4.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.63

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.83

2 (+2.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 175.51.87

Under 175.51.80

Diff.: 3 · Est. total: 172.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.63 → 1.63	Bet365 1.63
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.29 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	2
14:40 +7’	1.63	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
14:46 +1’	1.53	2.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jilin Northeast Tigers 2–0–4 Shenzhen Leopards

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 China CBA	Jilin Northeast Tigers	86-111	Shenzhen Leopards
16/12/25 China CBA	Shenzhen Leopards	99-81	Jilin Northeast Tigers
07/12/25 China CBA Club Cup	Jilin Northeast Tigers	88-85	Shenzhen Leopards
17/01/25 China CBA	Shenzhen Leopards	118-96	Jilin Northeast Tigers
13/01/25 China CBA	Jilin Northeast Tigers	115-112	Shenzhen Leopards
26/01/24 China CBA	Jilin Northeast Tigers	116-118	Shenzhen Leopards

Standings · China CBA

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Beijing Ducks	6	6	0	625	473
2	Beijing Royal Fighters	6	4	2	588	483
3	Shanghai Sharks	5	4	1	492	439
4	Fujian Sturgeons	6	3	3	547	532
5	Guangdong Southern Tigers	6	3	3	524	526
6	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	5	4	1	428	369
7	Liaoning Flying Leopards	5	4	1	478	447
8	Zhejiang Lions	5	3	2	463	465
9	Jilin Northeast Tigers	5	3	2	426	415
10	Sichuan Blue Whales	6	2	4	475	574
11	Shanxi Loongs	5	3	2	499	454
12	Guangzhou Long-Lions	5	3	2	454	469
13	Qingdao Eagles	6	2	4	534	542
14	Shandong Hi-Speed	6	2	4	552	579
15	Shenzhen Leopards	5	2	3	384	489
16	Jiangsu Dragons	6	1	5	495	532
17	Xinjiang Flying Tigers	5	2	3	434	440
18	Nanjing Monkey King	5	2	3	445	497
19	Tianjin Pioneers	5	1	4	462	489
20	Ningbo Rockets	5	0	5	373	464

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jilin Northeast Tigers	Shenzhen Leopards
Zhejiang Lions	82-81 W	88-97 L
Beijing Ducks	82-84 L	62-120 L
Zhejiang Golden Bulls	66-82 L	95-91 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Jilin Northeast Tigers (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jilin Northeast Tigers

LLLLLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/10	Ningbo Rockets China CBA	85-76	W
24/10	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	82-81	W
22/10	Xinjiang Flying Tigers China CBA	89-83	W
20/10	Sichuan Blue Whales China CBA	88-91	L
18/10	Beijing Ducks China CBA	82-84	L
24/04	Beijing Ducks China CBA	55-105	L
20/04	Ningbo Rockets China CBA	65-84	L
18/04	Guangzhou Long-Lions China CBA	75-93	L
16/04	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	66-82	L
13/04	Nanjing Monkey King China CBA	81-98	L

Shenzhen Leopards

WLLWLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
28/10	Shanxi Loongs China CBA	95-83	W
25/10	Beijing Royal Fighters China CBA	70-103	L
22/10	Beijing Ducks China CBA	62-120	L
19/10	Jiangsu Dragons China CBA	89-81	W
16/10	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	68-102	L
23/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	88-97	L
21/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	91-80	W
18/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	85-92	L
16/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	102-111	L
10/05	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	95-91	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jilin Northeast Tigers vs Shenzhen Leopards?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Jilin Northeast Tigers 54% · Shenzhen Leopards 46%).

How many points are expected in Jilin Northeast Tigers vs Shenzhen Leopards?

The model estimates 179.6 total points (Jilin Northeast Tigers 90.5 · Shenzhen Leopards 89.1).