Basketball · China CBA · 30/10, 12:35

Prediction: Guangzhou Long-Lions vs Shanxi Loongs

Team pages: Guangzhou Long-Lions · Shanxi Loongs

Prediction summary

Estimated points

177.5Total

Guangzhou Long-Lions85.7

Shanxi Loongs91.8

1X2

33% 67%

Guangzhou Long-Lions Shanxi Loongs

Recent form · 10 last

Guangzhou Long-Lions 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWLLW

Shanxi Loongs 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLWWWL

Head-to-head

Guangzhou Long-Lions 2–4 Shanxi Loongs (6 last)

Guangzhou Long-Lions99-98Shanxi Loongs
Shanxi Loongs70-74Guangzhou Long-Lions
Shanxi Loongs80-73Guangzhou Long-Lions
Shanxi Loongs85-82Guangzhou Long-Lions
Shanxi Loongs124-116Guangzhou Long-Lions
Guangzhou Long-Lions104-130Shanxi Loongs

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guangzhou Long-Lions 1519 · Shanxi Loongs 1574

	Guangzhou Long-Lions	Shanxi Loongs
Our model	55%	45%
Market	27%	73%

Estimated total (ours) 177.5 points · Bet365 line 183.5 · -6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points177.5Guangzhou Long-Lions 85.7 · Shanxi Loongs 91.8

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shanxi Loongs (rating 1519 vs 1574).
Shanxi Loongs is a clear favourite (67% market).
H2H favours Shanxi Loongs: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Guangzhou Long-Lions	Shanxi Loongs
Points F\|A (Last 10)	87.8 / 91.3	92.6 / 90.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	90.8 / 93.8	99.8 / 90.8
Est. result	86	92

Est. total177.5

Line O/U183.5

Diff.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.40

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+7.5)1.83

2 (-7.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 183.51.83

Under 183.51.83

Diff.: 2.6 · Est. total: 180.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.28 → 1.28	Pinn 1.34 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	2
15:34 +13’	3.40	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
14:45 +2’	2.87	1.34

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangzhou Long-Lions 2–0–4 Shanxi Loongs

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/03/26 China CBA	Guangzhou Long-Lions	99-98	Shanxi Loongs
02/01/26 China CBA	Shanxi Loongs	70-74	Guangzhou Long-Lions
07/12/25 China CBA Club Cup	Shanxi Loongs	80-73	Guangzhou Long-Lions
03/12/25 China CBA Club Cup	Shanxi Loongs	85-82	Guangzhou Long-Lions
20/01/25 China CBA	Shanxi Loongs	124-116	Guangzhou Long-Lions
07/12/24 China CBA	Guangzhou Long-Lions	104-130	Shanxi Loongs

Standings · China CBA

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Beijing Ducks	6	6	0	625	473
2	Beijing Royal Fighters	6	4	2	588	483
3	Shanghai Sharks	5	4	1	492	439
4	Fujian Sturgeons	6	3	3	547	532
5	Guangdong Southern Tigers	6	3	3	524	526
6	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	5	4	1	428	369
7	Liaoning Flying Leopards	5	4	1	478	447
8	Zhejiang Lions	5	3	2	463	465
9	Jilin Northeast Tigers	5	3	2	426	415
10	Sichuan Blue Whales	6	2	4	475	574
11	Shanxi Loongs	5	3	2	499	454
12	Guangzhou Long-Lions	5	3	2	454	469
13	Qingdao Eagles	6	2	4	534	542
14	Shandong Hi-Speed	6	2	4	552	579
15	Shenzhen Leopards	5	2	3	384	489
16	Jiangsu Dragons	6	1	5	495	532
17	Xinjiang Flying Tigers	5	2	3	434	440
18	Nanjing Monkey King	5	2	3	445	497
19	Tianjin Pioneers	5	1	4	462	489
20	Ningbo Rockets	5	0	5	373	464

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guangzhou Long-Lions

WLWLLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/10	Beijing Royal Fighters China CBA	91-90	W
25/10	Beijing Ducks China CBA	73-117	L
23/10	Tianjin Pioneers China CBA	86-102	L
20/10	Nanjing Monkey King China CBA	114-81	W
18/10	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	90-79	W
03/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	80-90	L
01/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	64-85	L
28/04	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	93-76	W
24/04	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	86-99	L
20/04	Fujian Sturgeons China CBA	101-94	W

Shanxi Loongs

WWWLLLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
28/10	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	83-95	L
25/10	Jiangsu Dragons China CBA	101-79	W
22/10	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	103-92	W
20/10	Ningbo Rockets China CBA	103-73	W
17/10	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	109-115	L
13/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	67-91	L
10/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	81-86	L
07/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	92-90	W
02/05	Qingdao Eagles China CBA	97-94	W
29/04	Qingdao Eagles China CBA	90-86	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guangzhou Long-Lions vs Shanxi Loongs?

Our model gives 67% to Shanxi Loongs.

How many points are expected in Guangzhou Long-Lions vs Shanxi Loongs?

The model estimates 177.5 total points (Guangzhou Long-Lions 85.7 · Shanxi Loongs 91.8).