Basketball · China CBA · 23/10, 13:35

Prediction: Tianjin Pioneers vs Guangzhou Long-Lions

Team pages: Tianjin Pioneers · Guangzhou Long-Lions

Prediction summary

Estimated points

184Total

Tianjin Pioneers88.7

Guangzhou Long-Lions95.2

1X2

32% 68%

Tianjin Pioneers Guangzhou Long-Lions

Recent form · 10 last

Tianjin Pioneers 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLLLLL

Guangzhou Long-Lions 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLLWW

Head-to-head

Tianjin Pioneers 2–4 Guangzhou Long-Lions (6 last)

Tianjin Pioneers89-79Guangzhou Long-Lions
Guangzhou Long-Lions93-98Tianjin Pioneers
Tianjin Pioneers106-108Guangzhou Long-Lions
Tianjin Pioneers87-96Guangzhou Long-Lions
Guangzhou Long-Lions108-97Tianjin Pioneers
Tianjin Pioneers69-89Guangzhou Long-Lions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tianjin Pioneers 1447 · Guangzhou Long-Lions 1523

	Tianjin Pioneers	Guangzhou Long-Lions
Our model	52%	48%
Market	27%	73%

Estimated total (ours) 184 points · Bet365 line 185.5 · -1.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points184Tianjin Pioneers 88.7 · Guangzhou Long-Lions 95.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guangzhou Long-Lions (rating 1447 vs 1523).
Guangzhou Long-Lions is a clear favourite (68% market).
H2H favours Guangzhou Long-Lions: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Tianjin Pioneers	Guangzhou Long-Lions
Points F\|A (Last 10)	96.5 / 97.2	89 / 83.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	90.2 / 101.8	88.2 / 82.2
Est. result	89	95

Est. total184

Line O/U185.5

Diff.1.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.40

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+7.5)1.83

2 (-7.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 185.51.83

Under 185.51.83

Diff.: 2.35 · Est. total: 183.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	2
16:41 +6’	3.40	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tianjin Pioneers 2–0–4 Guangzhou Long-Lions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/10/26 Club Friendlies	Tianjin Pioneers	89-79	Guangzhou Long-Lions
12/01/26 China CBA	Guangzhou Long-Lions	93-98	Tianjin Pioneers
04/01/26 China CBA	Tianjin Pioneers	106-108	Guangzhou Long-Lions
12/03/25 China CBA	Tianjin Pioneers	87-96	Guangzhou Long-Lions
27/11/24 China CBA	Guangzhou Long-Lions	108-97	Tianjin Pioneers
17/11/24 China CBA Club Cup	Tianjin Pioneers	69-89	Guangzhou Long-Lions

Standings · China CBA

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Shanghai Sharks	2	2	0	207	160
2	Guangzhou Long-Lions	2	2	0	204	160
3	Beijing Ducks	2	2	0	180	160
4	Xinjiang Flying Tigers	2	2	0	189	172
5	Liaoning Flying Leopards	2	2	0	192	177
6	Sichuan Blue Whales	2	2	0	188	173
7	Zhejiang Lions	2	2	0	214	203
8	Shanxi Loongs	2	1	1	212	188
9	Beijing Royal Fighters	2	1	1	187	176
10	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	2	1	1	168	165
11	Fujian Sturgeons	2	1	1	183	184
12	Shenzhen Leopards	2	1	1	157	183
13	Nanjing Monkey King	2	1	1	177	209
14	Jilin Northeast Tigers	2	0	2	170	175
15	Qingdao Eagles	2	0	2	173	179
16	Jiangsu Dragons	2	0	2	166	178
17	Guangdong Southern Tigers	2	0	2	173	192
18	Shandong Hi-Speed	2	0	2	159	184
19	Tianjin Pioneers	2	0	2	177	204
20	Ningbo Rockets	2	0	2	144	198

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tianjin Pioneers

WLWWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/10	Xinjiang Flying Tigers China CBA	92-107	L
17/10	Sichuan Blue Whales China CBA	85-97	L
24/04	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	93-103	L
20/04	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	84-96	L
17/04	Qingdao Eagles China CBA	97-106	L
15/04	Sichuan Blue Whales China CBA	100-84	W
13/04	Xinjiang Flying Tigers China CBA	100-98	W
11/04	Sichuan Blue Whales China CBA	111-86	W
08/04	Xinjiang Flying Tigers China CBA	101-106	L
06/04	Ningbo Rockets China CBA	102-89	W

Guangzhou Long-Lions

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/10	Nanjing Monkey King China CBA	114-81	W
18/10	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	90-79	W
03/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	80-90	L
01/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	64-85	L
28/04	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	93-76	W
24/04	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	86-99	L
20/04	Fujian Sturgeons China CBA	101-94	W
18/04	Jilin Northeast Tigers China CBA	93-75	W
15/04	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	89-90	L
13/04	Jiangsu Dragons China CBA	80-67	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tianjin Pioneers vs Guangzhou Long-Lions?

Our model gives 68% to Guangzhou Long-Lions.

How many points are expected in Tianjin Pioneers vs Guangzhou Long-Lions?

The model estimates 184 total points (Tianjin Pioneers 88.7 · Guangzhou Long-Lions 95.2).