Basketball · Argentina Liga Nacional · 01/10, 01:30
Prediction: Penarol vs Gimnasia Comodoro
Prediction summary
Estimated points
157Total
Penarol77.8
Gimnasia Comodoro79.2
1X2
Even — no clear favourite
Penarol
Gimnasia Comodoro
The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.
Recent form · 10 last
Penarol
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Gimnasia Comodoro
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Penarol
4–2
Gimnasia Comodoro
(6 last)
- Penarol77-73Gimnasia Comodoro
- Gimnasia Comodoro93-67Penarol
- Gimnasia Comodoro88-86Penarol
- Penarol100-86Gimnasia Comodoro
- Gimnasia Comodoro79-86Penarol
- Penarol87-85Gimnasia Comodoro
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Penarol 1494 · Gimnasia Comodoro 1548
| Penarol | Gimnasia Comodoro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
Estimated total (ours)
157 points · Bet365 line 157.5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points157Penarol 77.8 · Gimnasia Comodoro 79.2
Match keys
- H2H favours Penarol: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Penarol | Gimnasia Comodoro | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 83 / 83.7 | 77.4 / 73.3 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 82.2 / 83.2 | 76.4 / 75.4 |
| Est. result | 78 | 79 |
Est. total157
Line O/U157.5
Diff.0.5
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Penarol 4–0–2 Gimnasia Comodoro
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/26 Argentina Liga Nacional | Penarol | 77-73 | Gimnasia Comodoro |
| 06/12/25 Argentina Liga Nacional | Gimnasia Comodoro | 93-67 | Penarol |
| 02/04/25 Argentina Liga Nacional | Gimnasia Comodoro | 88-86 | Penarol |
| 13/01/25 Argentina Liga Nacional | Penarol | 100-86 | Gimnasia Comodoro |
| 28/04/24 Argentina Liga Nacional | Gimnasia Comodoro | 79-86 | Penarol |
| 17/12/23 Argentina Liga Nacional | Penarol | 87-85 | Gimnasia Comodoro |
Standings · Argentina Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Comodoro | 1 | 1 | 0 | 92 | 74 | 2 |
| 2 | Atenas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Argentino Junin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Platense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Olimpico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Ferrocarril Oeste | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Independiente de Oliva | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Instituto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | La Union Formosa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Obera TC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Penarol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Quimsa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Racing de Chivilcoy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Regatas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | San Martin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Lanus | 1 | 0 | 1 | 74 | 92 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Penarol
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05 | Ferrocarril Oeste Argentina Liga Nacional |
68-84 | L |
| 01/05 | Ferrocarril Oeste Argentina Liga Nacional |
87-75 | W |
| 27/04 | Ferrocarril Oeste Argentina Liga Nacional |
78-80 | L |
| 25/04 | Ferrocarril Oeste Argentina Liga Nacional |
91-97 | L |
| 20/04 | Ferrocarril Oeste Argentina Liga Nacional |
87-80 | W |
| 17/04 | Obera TC Argentina Liga Nacional |
81-84 | L |
| 15/04 | La Union Formosa Argentina Liga Nacional |
85-91 | L |
| 05/04 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Nacional |
85-83 | W |
| 01/04 | Atenas Argentina Liga Nacional |
85-95 | L |
| 30/03 | Instituto Argentina Liga Nacional |
83-68 | W |
Gimnasia Comodoro
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Lanus Argentina Liga Nacional |
92-74 | W |
| 18/06 | Quimsa Argentina Liga Nacional |
60-88 | L |
| 14/06 | Quimsa Argentina Liga Nacional |
74-77 | L |
| 12/06 | Quimsa Argentina Liga Nacional |
76-59 | W |
| 09/06 | Quimsa Argentina Liga Nacional |
80-79 | W |
| 07/06 | Quimsa Argentina Liga Nacional |
82-73 | W |
| 03/06 | Ferrocarril Oeste Argentina Liga Nacional |
88-54 | W |
| 30/05 | Ferrocarril Oeste Argentina Liga Nacional |
73-81 | L |
| 29/05 | Ferrocarril Oeste Argentina Liga Nacional |
70-74 | L |
| 26/05 | Ferrocarril Oeste Argentina Liga Nacional |
79-74 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Penarol vs Gimnasia Comodoro?
Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Penarol 46% · Gimnasia Comodoro 54%).
How many points are expected in Penarol vs Gimnasia Comodoro?
The model estimates 157 total points (Penarol 77.8 · Gimnasia Comodoro 79.2).