Basketball · Uruguay Liga de Ascenso · 23/09, 01:15
Prediction: Olimpia vs Verdirrojo
Team pages: Olimpia · Verdirrojo
Prediction summary
Estimated points
150.7Total
Olimpia80.3
Verdirrojo70.4
1X2
Olimpia
Verdirrojo
Recent form · 10 last
Olimpia
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Verdirrojo
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Olimpia
4–2
Verdirrojo
(6 last)
- Verdirrojo68-69Olimpia
- Olimpia100-68Verdirrojo
- Verdirrojo84-75Olimpia
- Olimpia69-59Verdirrojo
- Verdirrojo80-70Olimpia
- Olimpia87-79Verdirrojo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Olimpia 1586 · Verdirrojo 1493
| Olimpia | Verdirrojo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 26% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
150.7 points · Bet365 line 154.5 · -3.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points150.7Olimpia 80.3 · Verdirrojo 70.4
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpia (rating 1586 vs 1493).
- Olimpia is a clear favourite (76% market).
- H2H favours Olimpia: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Olimpia | Verdirrojo | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 84.5 / 71.6 | 72.2 / 75.1 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 88.2 / 73 | 71.2 / 77.8 |
| Est. result | 80 | 70 |
Est. total150.7
Line O/U154.5
Diff.3.8
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpia 4–0–2 Verdirrojo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/26 Uruguay Liga de Ascenso | Verdirrojo | 68-69 | Olimpia |
| 16/09/26 Uruguay Liga de Ascenso | Olimpia | 100-68 | Verdirrojo |
| 08/08/26 Uruguay Liga de Ascenso | Verdirrojo | 84-75 | Olimpia |
| 18/07/26 Uruguay Liga de Ascenso | Olimpia | 69-59 | Verdirrojo |
| 30/08/25 Uruguay Liga de Ascenso | Verdirrojo | 80-70 | Olimpia |
| 23/08/25 Uruguay Liga de Ascenso | Olimpia | 87-79 | Verdirrojo |
Standings · Uruguay Liga de Ascenso · Liga de Ascenso 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 20 | 16 | 4 | 1674 | 1461 | 36 |
| 2 | Trouville | 20 | 15 | 5 | 1624 | 1463 | 35 |
| 3 | Verdirrojo | 20 | 13 | 7 | 1517 | 1459 | 33 |
| 4 | Stockolmo | 19 | 13 | 6 | 1444 | 1314 | 32 |
| 5 | Lagomar | 19 | 11 | 8 | 1446 | 1449 | 30 |
| 6 | Sayago | 20 | 10 | 10 | 1522 | 1508 | 30 |
| 7 | Tabare | 20 | 9 | 11 | 1571 | 1530 | 29 |
| 8 | Urupan de Pando | 20 | 9 | 11 | 1533 | 1594 | 29 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Olimpia | Verdirrojo |
|---|---|---|
| Stockolmo | 83-66 W | 77-68 W |
| Sayago | 76-63 W | 53-80 L |
| Trouville | 73-75 L | 72-69 W |
| Urupan de Pando | 97-63 W | 76-77 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Olimpia (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Olimpia
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Verdirrojo Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
69-68 | W |
| 16/09 | Verdirrojo Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
100-68 | W |
| 09/09 | Montevideo Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
101-93 | W |
| 05/09 | Montevideo Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
86-74 | W |
| 27/08 | Tabare Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
85-62 | W |
| 22/08 | Stockolmo Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
83-66 | W |
| 19/08 | Sayago Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
76-63 | W |
| 14/08 | Trouville Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
73-75 | L |
| 11/08 | Urupan de Pando Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
97-63 | W |
| 08/08 | Verdirrojo Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
75-84 | L |
Verdirrojo
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Olimpia Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
68-69 | L |
| 16/09 | Olimpia Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
68-100 | L |
| 09/09 | Lagomar Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
82-76 | W |
| 04/09 | Lagomar Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
85-64 | W |
| 27/08 | Sayago Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
53-80 | L |
| 22/08 | Urupan de Pando Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
76-77 | L |
| 18/08 | Lagomar Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
57-73 | L |
| 15/08 | Stockolmo Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
77-68 | W |
| 11/08 | Trouville Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
72-69 | W |
| 08/08 | Olimpia Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
84-75 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Olimpia vs Verdirrojo?
Our model gives 76% to Olimpia.
How many points are expected in Olimpia vs Verdirrojo?
The model estimates 150.7 total points (Olimpia 80.3 · Verdirrojo 70.4).