Basketball · Greece Basket League · 08/11, 12:00
Prediction: AEK vs Panathinaikos
Team pages: AEK · Panathinaikos
Prediction summary
Estimated points
165.1Total
AEK76.1
Panathinaikos88.9
1X2
AEK
Panathinaikos
Recent form · 10 last
AEK
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Panathinaikos
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AEK
0–6
Panathinaikos
(6 last)
- Panathinaikos78-56AEK
- Panathinaikos103-78AEK
- AEK63-101Panathinaikos
- AEK80-103Panathinaikos
- Panathinaikos94-74AEK
- Panathinaikos79-72AEK
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AEK 1447 · Panathinaikos 1606
| AEK | Panathinaikos | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 12% | 88% |
Estimated total (ours)
165.1 points · Bet365 line 163.5 · +1.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points165.1AEK 76.1 · Panathinaikos 88.9
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Panathinaikos (rating 1447 vs 1606).
- Panathinaikos is a clear favourite (82% market).
- H2H favours Panathinaikos: 6-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| AEK | Panathinaikos | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 79.4 / 85.6 | 86.5 / 79 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 75.8 / 79.4 | 90.2 / 74.6 |
| Est. result | 76 | 89 |
Est. total165.1
Line O/U163.5
Diff.1.6
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · AEK 0–0–6 Panathinaikos
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/26 Club Friendlies | Panathinaikos | 78-56 | AEK |
| 15/03/26 Greece Basket League | Panathinaikos | 103-78 | AEK |
| 13/12/25 Greece Basket League | AEK | 63-101 | Panathinaikos |
| 12/01/25 Greece Basket League | AEK | 80-103 | Panathinaikos |
| 21/10/24 Greece Basket League | Panathinaikos | 94-74 | AEK |
| 15/02/24 Greece Cup | Panathinaikos | 79-72 | AEK |
Standings · Greece Basket League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PAOK | 5 | 5 | 0 | 390 | 357 | 10 |
| 2 | Aris | 5 | 4 | 1 | 419 | 352 | 9 |
| 3 | Olympiacos | 5 | 5 | 0 | 432 | 326 | 8 |
| 4 | Peristeri | 5 | 3 | 2 | 405 | 444 | 8 |
| 5 | AS Karditsas | 5 | 3 | 2 | 357 | 356 | 8 |
| 6 | Kolossos Rhodes | 5 | 2 | 3 | 403 | 413 | 7 |
| 7 | Doxa Lefkadas | 5 | 2 | 3 | 394 | 402 | 7 |
| 8 | Panathinaikos | 5 | 4 | 1 | 451 | 373 | 7 |
| 9 | AEK | 5 | 2 | 3 | 379 | 397 | 7 |
| 10 | Marousi | 5 | 1 | 4 | 374 | 406 | 6 |
| 11 | AO Mykonou | 5 | 1 | 4 | 377 | 412 | 6 |
| 12 | Promitheas | 5 | 1 | 4 | 348 | 429 | 6 |
| 13 | Iraklis 2022 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 367 | 379 | 6 |
| 14 | Vikos BC | 5 | 1 | 4 | 381 | 431 | 6 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AEK | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|
| Vikos BC | 84-95 L | 103-74 W |
| Aris | 58-88 L | 91-101 L |
| Olympiacos | 68-95 L | 85-89 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Panathinaikos (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AEK
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Vikos BC Greece Basket League |
84-95 | L |
| 24/10 | PAOK Greece Basket League |
62-65 | L |
| 17/10 | AO Mykonou Greece Basket League |
84-79 | W |
| 10/10 | Aris Greece Basket League |
58-88 | L |
| 03/10 | Marousi Greece Basket League |
91-70 | W |
| 30/05 | Olympiacos Greece Basket League |
68-95 | L |
| 28/05 | Olympiacos Greece Basket League |
77-94 | L |
| 25/05 | Aris Greece Basket League |
102-99 | W |
| 17/05 | Aris Greece Basket League |
81-90 | L |
| 14/05 | Aris Greece Basket League |
87-81 | W |
Panathinaikos
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Aris Greece Basket League |
91-101 | L |
| 24/10 | AS Karditsas Greece Basket League |
78-64 | W |
| 18/10 | Peristeri Greece Basket League |
95-75 | W |
| 10/10 | Promitheas Greece Basket League |
84-59 | W |
| 04/10 | Vikos BC Greece Basket League |
103-74 | W |
| 13/06 | Olympiacos Greece Basket League |
85-89 | L |
| 10/06 | Olympiacos Greece Basket League |
93-86 | W |
| 08/06 | Olympiacos Greece Basket League |
92-102 | L |
| 05/06 | Olympiacos Greece Basket League |
68-58 | W |
| 03/06 | Olympiacos Greece Basket League |
76-82 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AEK vs Panathinaikos?
Our model gives 82% to Panathinaikos.
How many points are expected in AEK vs Panathinaikos?
The model estimates 165.1 total points (AEK 76.1 · Panathinaikos 88.9).