Basketball · Greece Basket League · 15/11, 16:30

Prediction: Aris vs Olympiacos

Team pages: Aris · Olympiacos

Prediction summary

Estimated points

161.1Total

Aris79.2

Olympiacos82

1X2

42% 58%

Aris Olympiacos

Recent form · 10 last

Aris 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWWWW

Olympiacos 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Aris 0–6 Olympiacos (6 last)

Olympiacos92-81Aris
Aris84-95Olympiacos
Aris77-88Olympiacos
Olympiacos102-72Aris
Olympiacos85-77Aris
Olympiacos85-71Aris

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aris 1576 · Olympiacos 1631

	Aris	Olympiacos
Our model	55%	45%
Market	39%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 161.1 points · Bet365 line 155.5 · +5.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points161.1Aris 79.2 · Olympiacos 82

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olympiacos (rating 1576 vs 1631).
H2H favours Olympiacos: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Aris	Olympiacos
Points F\|A (Last 10)	85.2 / 76.4	85 / 74.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	87.8 / 71	87.4 / 67.8
Est. result	79	82

Est. total161.1

Line O/U155.5

Diff.5.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.40

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.80

2 (-3.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 155.51.87

Under 155.51.87

Diff.: 5.05 · Est. total: 160.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	2
16:43 +6’	2.40	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aris 0–0–6 Olympiacos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Greece Basket League	Olympiacos	92-81	Aris
04/01/26 Greece Basket League	Aris	84-95	Olympiacos
04/01/25 Greece Basket League	Aris	77-88	Olympiacos
13/10/24 Greece Basket League	Olympiacos	102-72	Aris
31/03/24 Greece Basket League	Olympiacos	85-77	Aris
31/12/23 Greece Basket League	Olympiacos	85-71	Aris

Standings · Greece Basket League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PAOK	6	6	0	483	424	12
2	Aris	6	5	1	507	429	11
3	Olympiacos	6	6	0	515	407	10
4	AS Karditsas	6	4	2	447	429	10
5	Panathinaikos	6	5	1	534	447	9
6	Kolossos Rhodes	6	3	3	484	491	9
7	Peristeri	6	3	3	483	525	9
8	Doxa Lefkadas	6	2	4	471	490	8
9	Iraklis 2022	6	2	4	462	443	8
10	AEK	6	2	4	453	480	8
11	Marousi	6	1	5	455	489	7
12	AO Mykonou	6	1	5	441	507	7
13	Promitheas	6	1	5	421	519	7
14	Vikos BC	6	1	5	448	524	7

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aris	Olympiacos
Panathinaikos	101-91 W	89-85 W
Marousi	74-57 W	83-81 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Aris (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aris

WLWLLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	Doxa Lefkadas Greece Basket League	88-77	W
01/11	Panathinaikos Greece Basket League	101-91	W
24/10	AO Mykonou Greece Basket League	88-72	W
17/10	Marousi Greece Basket League	74-57	W
10/10	AEK Greece Basket League	88-58	W
03/10	AS Karditsas Greece Basket League	68-74	L
25/05	AEK Greece Basket League	99-102	L
17/05	AEK Greece Basket League	90-81	W
14/05	AEK Greece Basket League	81-87	L
25/04	Panionios Greece Basket League	75-65	W

Olympiacos

LWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
08/11	Marousi Greece Basket League	83-81	W
01/11	Peristeri Greece Basket League	91-62	W
25/10	Promitheas Greece Basket League	85-45	W
18/10	Vikos BC Greece Basket League	79-68	W
11/10	Kolossos Rhodes Greece Basket League	99-83	W
04/10	Iraklis 2022 Greece Basket League	78-68	W
13/06	Panathinaikos Greece Basket League	89-85	W
10/06	Panathinaikos Greece Basket League	86-93	L
08/06	Panathinaikos Greece Basket League	102-92	W
05/06	Panathinaikos Greece Basket League	58-68	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aris vs Olympiacos?

Our model gives 58% to Olympiacos.

How many points are expected in Aris vs Olympiacos?

The model estimates 161.1 total points (Aris 79.2 · Olympiacos 82).