Basketball · Greece Basket League · 17/10, 16:30
Prediction: Aris vs Marousi
Team pages: Aris
Prediction summary
Estimated points
170.8Total
Aris93
Marousi77.8
1X2
Aris
Marousi
Recent form · 10 last
Aris
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Marousi
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aris
3–3
Marousi
(6 last)
- Aris102-76Marousi
- Marousi87-80Aris
- Marousi108-103Aris
- Aris114-109Marousi
- Marousi91-68Aris
- Marousi73-78Aris
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aris 1499 · Marousi 1433
| Aris | Marousi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 89% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
170.8 points · Bet365 line 166.5 · +4.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points170.8Aris 93 · Marousi 77.8
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aris (rating 1499 vs 1433).
- Aris is a clear favourite (86% market).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Aris | Marousi | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 81.6 / 80.3 | 81.6 / 88.8 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 85.2 / 80.4 | 86.6 / 87.8 |
| Est. result | 93 | 78 |
Est. total170.8
Line O/U166.5
Diff.4.3
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aris 3–0–3 Marousi
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Greece Basket League | Aris | 102-76 | Marousi |
| 17/02/26 Greece Cup | Marousi | 87-80 | Aris |
| 18/10/25 Greece Basket League | Marousi | 108-103 | Aris |
| 17/05/25 Greece Basket League | Aris | 114-109 | Marousi |
| 26/04/25 Greece Basket League | Marousi | 91-68 | Aris |
| 01/02/25 Greece Basket League | Marousi | 73-78 | Aris |
Standings · Greece Basket League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Karditsas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 159 | 142 | 4 |
| 2 | PAOK | 2 | 2 | 0 | 174 | 158 | 4 |
| 3 | Peristeri | 2 | 2 | 0 | 185 | 177 | 4 |
| 4 | Aris | 2 | 1 | 1 | 156 | 132 | 3 |
| 5 | AEK | 2 | 1 | 1 | 149 | 158 | 3 |
| 6 | Kolossos Rhodes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 174 | 174 | 3 |
| 7 | AO Mykonou | 2 | 1 | 1 | 167 | 167 | 3 |
| 8 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 187 | 133 | 2 |
| 9 | Olympiacos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 177 | 151 | 2 |
| 10 | Iraklis 2022 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 157 | 169 | 2 |
| 11 | Promitheas | 2 | 0 | 2 | 147 | 178 | 2 |
| 12 | Vikos BC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 148 | 188 | 2 |
| 13 | Marousi | 2 | 0 | 2 | 149 | 173 | 2 |
| 14 | Doxa Lefkadas | 2 | 0 | 2 | 148 | 177 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Aris | Marousi |
|---|---|---|
| AEK | 88-58 W | 70-91 L |
| AS Karditsas | 68-74 L | 78-77 W |
| Peristeri | 75-78 L | 61-84 L |
| PAOK | 77-88 L | 85-101 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Aris (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aris
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | AEK Greece Basket League |
88-58 | W |
| 03/10 | AS Karditsas Greece Basket League |
68-74 | L |
| 25/05 | AEK Greece Basket League |
99-102 | L |
| 17/05 | AEK Greece Basket League |
90-81 | W |
| 14/05 | AEK Greece Basket League |
81-87 | L |
| 25/04 | Panionios Greece Basket League |
75-65 | W |
| 22/04 | Peristeri Greece Basket League |
75-78 | L |
| 19/04 | Olympiacos Greece Basket League |
81-92 | L |
| 15/04 | PAOK Greece Basket League |
77-88 | L |
| 04/04 | AEK Greece Basket League |
82-78 | W |
Marousi
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | AO Mykonou Greece Basket League |
79-82 | L |
| 03/10 | AEK Greece Basket League |
70-91 | L |
| 25/04 | PAOK Greece Basket League |
85-101 | L |
| 18/04 | Kolossos Rhodes Greece Basket League |
108-93 | W |
| 29/03 | Iraklis 2022 Greece Basket League |
91-72 | W |
| 21/03 | AO Mykonou Greece Basket League |
94-103 | L |
| 14/03 | Peristeri Greece Basket League |
61-84 | L |
| 07/03 | Aris Greece Basket League |
76-102 | L |
| 14/02 | AS Karditsas Greece Basket League |
78-77 | W |
| 07/02 | AEK Greece Basket League |
74-83 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aris vs Marousi?
Our model gives 86% to Aris.
How many points are expected in Aris vs Marousi?
The model estimates 170.8 total points (Aris 93 · Marousi 77.8).