Basketball · Greece Basket League · 24/10, 16:30

Prediction: PAOK vs AEK

Team pages: PAOK · AEK

Prediction summary

Estimated points

168.6Total

PAOK89.2

AEK79.4

1X2

76% 24%

PAOK AEK

Recent form · 10 last

PAOK 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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AEK 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

PAOK 3–3 AEK (6 last)

PAOK71-88AEK
AEK76-78PAOK
AEK89-85PAOK
PAOK94-69AEK
AEK89-76PAOK
PAOK84-65AEK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PAOK 1591 · AEK 1482

	PAOK	AEK
Our model	76%	24%
Market	76%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 168.6 points · Bet365 line 164.5 · +4.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points168.6PAOK 89.2 · AEK 79.4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PAOK (rating 1591 vs 1482).
PAOK is a clear favourite (76% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	PAOK	AEK
Points F\|A (Last 10)	89.1 / 84.3	80.3 / 84.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	91.6 / 91.6	75.6 / 85.2
Est. result	89	79

Est. total168.6

Line O/U164.5

Diff.4.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.24

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-8.5)1.87

2 (+8.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 164.51.87

Under 164.51.87

Diff.: 4.7 · Est. total: 169.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.24 → 1.24	Bet365 1.24
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	2
13:17 +31’	1.24	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PAOK 3–0–3 AEK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Greece Basket League	PAOK	71-88	AEK
09/11/25 Greece Basket League	AEK	76-78	PAOK
27/04/25 Greece Basket League	AEK	89-85	PAOK
12/04/25 Greece Basket League	PAOK	94-69	AEK
05/04/25 Greece Basket League	AEK	89-76	PAOK
13/02/25 Greece Cup	PAOK	84-65	AEK

Standings · Greece Basket League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PAOK	3	3	0	262	242	6
2	Aris	3	2	1	230	189	5
3	AS Karditsas	3	2	1	212	213	5
4	AEK	3	2	1	233	237	5
5	Peristeri	3	2	1	260	272	5
6	Olympiacos	3	3	0	256	219	4
7	Panathinaikos	3	3	0	282	208	4
8	Iraklis 2022	3	1	2	228	222	4
9	Kolossos Rhodes	3	1	2	258	262	4
10	Promitheas	3	1	2	227	257	4
11	AO Mykonou	3	1	2	246	251	4
12	Doxa Lefkadas	3	0	3	227	257	3
13	Marousi	3	0	3	206	247	3
14	Vikos BC	3	0	3	216	267	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PAOK	AEK
AO Mykonou	88-85 W	84-79 W
Marousi	101-85 W	91-70 W
Aris	88-77 W	58-88 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AEK (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PAOK

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	Kolossos Rhodes Greece Basket League	88-84	W
10/10	Doxa Lefkadas Greece Basket League	86-73	W
03/10	AO Mykonou Greece Basket League	88-85	W
30/05	Panathinaikos Greece Basket League	94-102	L
28/05	Panathinaikos Greece Basket League	102-114	L
06/05	Peristeri Greece Basket League	77-72	W
03/05	Peristeri Greece Basket League	91-79	W
25/04	Marousi Greece Basket League	101-85	W
18/04	Iraklis 2022 Greece Basket League	76-72	W
15/04	Aris Greece Basket League	88-77	W

AEK

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	AO Mykonou Greece Basket League	84-79	W
10/10	Aris Greece Basket League	58-88	L
03/10	Marousi Greece Basket League	91-70	W
30/05	Olympiacos Greece Basket League	68-95	L
28/05	Olympiacos Greece Basket League	77-94	L
25/05	Aris Greece Basket League	102-99	W
17/05	Aris Greece Basket League	81-90	L
14/05	Aris Greece Basket League	87-81	W
25/04	Olympiacos Greece Basket League	84-94	L
19/04	Panionios Greece Basket League	71-57	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PAOK vs AEK?

Our model gives 76% to PAOK.

How many points are expected in PAOK vs AEK?

The model estimates 168.6 total points (PAOK 89.2 · AEK 79.4).