Basketball · Greece Basket League · 01/11, 16:15

Prediction: Aris vs Panathinaikos

Team pages: Aris · Panathinaikos

Prediction summary

Estimated points

162.9Total

Aris78.6

Panathinaikos84.3

1X2

34% 66%

Aris Panathinaikos

Recent form · 10 last

Aris 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Panathinaikos 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Aris 1–5 Panathinaikos (6 last)

Aris102-95Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos82-77Aris
Aris73-83Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos126-74Aris
Panathinaikos81-68Aris
Aris65-80Panathinaikos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aris 1573 · Panathinaikos 1611

	Aris	Panathinaikos
Our model	57%	43%
Market	29%	71%

Estimated total (ours) 162.9 points · Bet365 line 166.5 · -3.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points162.9Aris 78.6 · Panathinaikos 84.3

Match keys

Panathinaikos is a clear favourite (66% market).
H2H favours Panathinaikos: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Aris	Panathinaikos
Points F\|A (Last 10)	81.9 / 76.6	87.6 / 78.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	83.4 / 72.6	89 / 72.2
Est. result	79	84

Est. total162.9

Line O/U166.5

Diff.3.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.30

21.32

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+6.5)1.91

2 (-6.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 166.51.83

Under 166.51.91

Diff.: 4.3 · Est. total: 162.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.32 → 1.32	Bet365 1.32

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.9%

Time*	1	2
20:49 +3’	3.30	1.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aris 1–0–5 Panathinaikos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Greece Basket League	Aris	102-95	Panathinaikos
16/11/25 Greece Basket League	Panathinaikos	82-77	Aris
17/03/25 Greece Basket League	Aris	73-83	Panathinaikos
22/12/24 Greece Basket League	Panathinaikos	126-74	Aris
28/09/24 Greece Super Cup	Panathinaikos	81-68	Aris
02/06/24 Greece Basket League	Aris	65-80	Panathinaikos

Standings · Greece Basket League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PAOK	4	4	0	327	304	8
2	Aris	4	3	1	318	261	7
3	Peristeri	4	3	1	343	353	7
4	Olympiacos	4	4	0	341	264	6
5	Panathinaikos	4	4	0	360	272	6
6	AS Karditsas	4	2	2	276	291	6
7	Kolossos Rhodes	4	2	2	338	332	6
8	AEK	4	2	2	295	302	6
9	Doxa Lefkadas	4	1	3	321	343	5
10	Promitheas	4	1	3	272	342	5
11	Iraklis 2022	4	1	3	314	316	5
12	AO Mykonou	4	1	3	318	339	5
13	Marousi	4	0	4	287	330	4
14	Vikos BC	4	0	4	286	347	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aris	Panathinaikos
AS Karditsas	68-74 L	78-64 W
Peristeri	75-78 L	95-75 W
Olympiacos	81-92 L	85-89 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Panathinaikos (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aris

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/10	AO Mykonou Greece Basket League	88-72	W
17/10	Marousi Greece Basket League	74-57	W
10/10	AEK Greece Basket League	88-58	W
03/10	AS Karditsas Greece Basket League	68-74	L
25/05	AEK Greece Basket League	99-102	L
17/05	AEK Greece Basket League	90-81	W
14/05	AEK Greece Basket League	81-87	L
25/04	Panionios Greece Basket League	75-65	W
22/04	Peristeri Greece Basket League	75-78	L
19/04	Olympiacos Greece Basket League	81-92	L

Panathinaikos

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/10	AS Karditsas Greece Basket League	78-64	W
18/10	Peristeri Greece Basket League	95-75	W
10/10	Promitheas Greece Basket League	84-59	W
04/10	Vikos BC Greece Basket League	103-74	W
13/06	Olympiacos Greece Basket League	85-89	L
10/06	Olympiacos Greece Basket League	93-86	W
08/06	Olympiacos Greece Basket League	92-102	L
05/06	Olympiacos Greece Basket League	68-58	W
03/06	Olympiacos Greece Basket League	76-82	L
30/05	PAOK Greece Basket League	102-94	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aris vs Panathinaikos?

Our model gives 66% to Panathinaikos.

How many points are expected in Aris vs Panathinaikos?

The model estimates 162.9 total points (Aris 78.6 · Panathinaikos 84.3).