Basketball · Uruguay Liga Women · 27/08, 02:00
Prediction: Defensor Sporting (W) vs Lagomar (W)
Team pages: Defensor Sporting (W) · Lagomar (W)
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Prediction summary
Estimated points
142.3Total
Defensor Sporting (W)80.5
Lagomar (W)61.8
1X2
Defensor Sporting (W)
Lagomar (W)
Recent form · 10 last
Defensor Sporting (W)
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Lagomar (W)
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Defensor Sporting (W)
5–1
Lagomar (W)
(6 last)
- Defensor Sporting (W)84-62Lagomar (W)
- Lagomar (W)52-67Defensor Sporting (W)
- Defensor Sporting (W)82-62Lagomar (W)
- Lagomar (W)57-59Defensor Sporting (W)
- Defensor Sporting (W)85-44Lagomar (W)
- Lagomar (W)61-57Defensor Sporting (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Defensor Sporting (W) 1640 · Lagomar (W) 1428
| Defensor Sporting (W) | Lagomar (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 85% | 15% |
| Market | 92% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
142.3 points · Bet365 line 130.5 · +11.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points142.3Defensor Sporting (W) 80.5 · Lagomar (W) 61.8
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Defensor Sporting (W) (rating 1640 vs 1428).
- Defensor Sporting (W) is a clear favourite (91% market).
- H2H favours Defensor Sporting (W): 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Defensor Sporting (W) | Lagomar (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 79.8 / 57.6 | 58.8 / 57.6 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 84.8 / 51 | 64.4 / 49.4 |
| Est. result | 81 | 62 |
Est. total142.3
Line O/U130.5
Diff.11.8
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensor Sporting (W) 5–0–1 Lagomar (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/26 Uruguay Liga Women | Defensor Sporting (W) | 84-62 | Lagomar (W) |
| 08/06/26 Uruguay Liga Women | Lagomar (W) | 52-67 | Defensor Sporting (W) |
| 14/05/26 Uruguay Liga Women | Defensor Sporting (W) | 82-62 | Lagomar (W) |
| 01/10/25 Uruguay Liga Women | Lagomar (W) | 57-59 | Defensor Sporting (W) |
| 28/09/25 Uruguay Liga Women | Defensor Sporting (W) | 85-44 | Lagomar (W) |
| 25/09/25 Uruguay Liga Women | Lagomar (W) | 61-57 | Defensor Sporting (W) |
Standings · Uruguay Liga Women · LFB, Women 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Defensor Sporting (W) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 631 | 473 | 15 |
| 2 | Malvin (W) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 544 | 477 | 15 |
| 3 | Aguada (W) | 8 | 3 | 5 | 565 | 566 | 11 |
| 4 | Club Yale Women | 8 | 2 | 6 | 409 | 613 | 10 |
| 5 | Lagomar (W) | 8 | 1 | 7 | 461 | 481 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Defensor Sporting (W) | Lagomar (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Club Yale Women | 94-36 W | 60-54 W |
| Aguada (W) | 80-67 W | 53-61 L |
| Malvin (W) | 83-49 W | 53-64 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Defensor Sporting (W) (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Defensor Sporting (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Cordon (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
71-47 | W |
| 17/08 | Cordon (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
96-56 | W |
| 24/07 | Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women |
94-36 | W |
| 17/07 | Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
80-67 | W |
| 12/07 | Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
83-49 | W |
| 05/07 | Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
84-62 | W |
| 28/06 | Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women |
71-56 | W |
| 21/06 | Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
97-85 | W |
| 18/06 | Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
55-66 | L |
| 08/06 | Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
67-52 | W |
Lagomar (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women |
60-54 | W |
| 20/08 | Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women |
64-41 | W |
| 16/08 | Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women |
55-67 | L |
| 17/07 | Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women |
90-24 | W |
| 13/07 | Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
53-61 | L |
| 09/07 | Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
53-64 | L |
| 05/07 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
62-84 | L |
| 21/06 | Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women |
45-52 | L |
| 18/06 | Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
57-64 | L |
| 14/06 | Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
49-65 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Defensor Sporting (W) vs Lagomar (W)?
Our model gives 91% to Defensor Sporting (W).
How many points are expected in Defensor Sporting (W) vs Lagomar (W)?
The model estimates 142.3 total points (Defensor Sporting (W) 80.5 · Lagomar (W) 61.8).