Basketball · Uruguay Liga Women · 03/09, 02:00

Prediction: Defensor Sporting (W) vs Lagomar (W)

Team pages: Defensor Sporting (W) · Lagomar (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

142.3Total

Defensor Sporting (W)80.5

Lagomar (W)61.8

1X2

91% 9%

Defensor Sporting (W) Lagomar (W)

Recent form · 10 last

Defensor Sporting (W) 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Lagomar (W) 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLWWLL

Head-to-head

Defensor Sporting (W) 6–0 Lagomar (W) (6 last)

Lagomar (W)42-76Defensor Sporting (W)
Defensor Sporting (W)71-38Lagomar (W)
Defensor Sporting (W)84-62Lagomar (W)
Lagomar (W)52-67Defensor Sporting (W)
Defensor Sporting (W)82-62Lagomar (W)
Lagomar (W)57-59Defensor Sporting (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Defensor Sporting (W) 1677 · Lagomar (W) 1433

	Defensor Sporting (W)	Lagomar (W)
Our model	87%	13%
Market	92%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 142.3 points · Bet365 line 122.5 · +19.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points142.3Defensor Sporting (W) 80.5 · Lagomar (W) 61.8

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Defensor Sporting (W) (rating 1677 vs 1433).
Defensor Sporting (W) is a clear favourite (91% market).
H2H favours Defensor Sporting (W): 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Defensor Sporting (W)	Lagomar (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	82.3 / 53.8	56.2 / 59.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	81.6 / 43.8	51.8 / 61.8
Est. result	81	62

Est. total142.3

Line O/U122.5

Diff.19.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.02

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-20.5)1.95

2 (+20.5)1.74

Line ⓘ

Over 122.51.83

Under 122.51.83

Diff.: 3.35 · Est. total: 125.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.02 → 1.02	Pinn 1.02 ★
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	2
16:41 +4’	1.02	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
15:45 +2’	1.02	7.36
16:44 +1’	1.02▼	7.43▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensor Sporting (W) 6–0–0 Lagomar (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/08/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Lagomar (W)	42-76	Defensor Sporting (W)
27/08/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Defensor Sporting (W)	71-38	Lagomar (W)
05/07/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Defensor Sporting (W)	84-62	Lagomar (W)
08/06/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Lagomar (W)	52-67	Defensor Sporting (W)
14/05/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Defensor Sporting (W)	82-62	Lagomar (W)
01/10/25 Uruguay Liga Women	Lagomar (W)	57-59	Defensor Sporting (W)

Standings · Uruguay Liga Women · LFB, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Defensor Sporting (W)	16	15	1	1248	877	31
2	Malvin (W)	16	14	2	1165	868	30
3	Aguada (W)	16	9	7	1138	1124	25
4	Club Yale Women	16	6	10	909	1125	22
5	Lagomar (W)	16	5	11	973	961	21

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Defensor Sporting (W)	Lagomar (W)
Club Yale Women	94-36 W	60-54 W
Aguada (W)	80-67 W	53-61 L
Malvin (W)	83-49 W	53-64 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Defensor Sporting (W) (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Defensor Sporting (W)

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/08	Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women	76-42	W
27/08	Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women	71-38	W
20/08	Cordon (W) Uruguay Liga Women	71-47	W
17/08	Cordon (W) Uruguay Liga Women	96-56	W
24/07	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	94-36	W
17/07	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	80-67	W
12/07	Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women	83-49	W
05/07	Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women	84-62	W
28/06	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	71-56	W
21/06	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	97-85	W

Lagomar (W)

LLLLWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/08	Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women	42-76	L
27/08	Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women	38-71	L
24/08	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	60-54	W
20/08	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	64-41	W
16/08	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	55-67	L
17/07	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	90-24	W
13/07	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	53-61	L
09/07	Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women	53-64	L
05/07	Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women	62-84	L
21/06	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	45-52	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Defensor Sporting (W) vs Lagomar (W)?

Our model gives 91% to Defensor Sporting (W).

How many points are expected in Defensor Sporting (W) vs Lagomar (W)?

The model estimates 142.3 total points (Defensor Sporting (W) 80.5 · Lagomar (W) 61.8).