Basketball · Uruguay Liga Women · 31/08, 00:00

Prediction: Lagomar (W) vs Defensor Sporting (W)

Team pages: Lagomar (W) · Defensor Sporting (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

142.9Total

Lagomar (W)64.2

Defensor Sporting (W)78.7

1X2

15% 85%

Lagomar (W) Defensor Sporting (W)

Recent form · 10 last

Lagomar (W) 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLWWL

Defensor Sporting (W) 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Lagomar (W) 0–6 Defensor Sporting (W) (6 last)

Defensor Sporting (W)71-38Lagomar (W)
Defensor Sporting (W)84-62Lagomar (W)
Lagomar (W)52-67Defensor Sporting (W)
Defensor Sporting (W)82-62Lagomar (W)
Lagomar (W)57-59Defensor Sporting (W)
Defensor Sporting (W)85-44Lagomar (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lagomar (W) 1440 · Defensor Sporting (W) 1665

	Lagomar (W)	Defensor Sporting (W)
Our model	31%	69%
Market	11%	89%

Estimated total (ours) 142.9 points · Bet365 line 128.5 · +14.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points142.9Lagomar (W) 64.2 · Defensor Sporting (W) 78.7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Defensor Sporting (W) (rating 1440 vs 1665).
Defensor Sporting (W) is a clear favourite (85% market).
H2H favours Defensor Sporting (W): 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Lagomar (W)	Defensor Sporting (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	57.7 / 58.2	80.2 / 56.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	61.4 / 51.4	82.4 / 48.8
Est. result	64	79

Est. total142.9

Line O/U128.5

Diff.14.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

18.25

21.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+15.5)1.83

2 (-15.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 128.51.83

Under 128.51.83

Diff.: 2.35 · Est. total: 126.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.25 → 8.25	Bet365 8.25
2	1.05 → 1.05	Bet365 1.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9%

Time*	1	2
22:25 +22’	8.25	1.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lagomar (W) 0–0–6 Defensor Sporting (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/08/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Defensor Sporting (W)	71-38	Lagomar (W)
05/07/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Defensor Sporting (W)	84-62	Lagomar (W)
08/06/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Lagomar (W)	52-67	Defensor Sporting (W)
14/05/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Defensor Sporting (W)	82-62	Lagomar (W)
01/10/25 Uruguay Liga Women	Lagomar (W)	57-59	Defensor Sporting (W)
28/09/25 Uruguay Liga Women	Defensor Sporting (W)	85-44	Lagomar (W)

Standings · Uruguay Liga Women · LFB, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Defensor Sporting (W)	8	7	1	631	473	15
2	Malvin (W)	8	7	1	544	477	15
3	Aguada (W)	8	3	5	565	566	11
4	Club Yale Women	8	2	6	409	613	10
5	Lagomar (W)	8	1	7	461	481	9

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lagomar (W)	Defensor Sporting (W)
Club Yale Women	60-54 W	94-36 W
Aguada (W)	53-61 L	80-67 W
Malvin (W)	53-64 L	83-49 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Defensor Sporting (W) (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lagomar (W)

LLLLLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/08	Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women	38-71	L
24/08	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	60-54	W
20/08	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	64-41	W
16/08	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	55-67	L
17/07	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	90-24	W
13/07	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	53-61	L
09/07	Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women	53-64	L
05/07	Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women	62-84	L
21/06	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	45-52	L
18/06	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	57-64	L

Defensor Sporting (W)

LWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/08	Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women	71-38	W
20/08	Cordon (W) Uruguay Liga Women	71-47	W
17/08	Cordon (W) Uruguay Liga Women	96-56	W
24/07	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	94-36	W
17/07	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	80-67	W
12/07	Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women	83-49	W
05/07	Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women	84-62	W
28/06	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	71-56	W
21/06	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	97-85	W
18/06	Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women	55-66	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lagomar (W) vs Defensor Sporting (W)?

Our model gives 85% to Defensor Sporting (W).

How many points are expected in Lagomar (W) vs Defensor Sporting (W)?

The model estimates 142.9 total points (Lagomar (W) 64.2 · Defensor Sporting (W) 78.7).