Basketball · Uruguay Liga Women · 31/08, 00:30

Prediction: Aguada (W) vs Malvin (W)

Team pages: Aguada (W) · Malvin (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

143.6Total

Aguada (W)67.5

Malvin (W)76.1

1X2

27% 73%

Aguada (W) Malvin (W)

Recent form · 10 last

Aguada (W) 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLLWWL

Malvin (W) 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Aguada (W) 0–6 Malvin (W) (6 last)

Malvin (W)80-58Aguada (W)
Aguada (W)67-82Malvin (W)
Malvin (W)67-59Aguada (W)
Malvin (W)77-63Aguada (W)
Aguada (W)58-88Malvin (W)
Malvin (W)57-46Aguada (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aguada (W) 1516 · Malvin (W) 1611

	Aguada (W)	Malvin (W)
Our model	49%	51%
Market	21%	79%

Estimated total (ours) 143.6 points · Bet365 line 134.5 · +9.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points143.6Aguada (W) 67.5 · Malvin (W) 76.1

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malvin (W) (rating 1516 vs 1611).
Malvin (W) is a clear favourite (73% market).
H2H favours Malvin (W): 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Aguada (W)	Malvin (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	72.1 / 69.2	69.5 / 57.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	71.4 / 72.8	71.4 / 60
Est. result	68	76

Est. total143.6

Line O/U134.5

Diff.9.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

14.40

21.18

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+10.5)1.83

2 (-10.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 134.51.83

Under 134.51.83

Diff.: 0.4 · Est. total: 134.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.40 → 4.40	Bet365 4.40
2	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	2
21:35 +11’	4.40	1.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguada (W) 0–0–6 Malvin (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/08/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Malvin (W)	80-58	Aguada (W)
24/07/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Aguada (W)	67-82	Malvin (W)
28/06/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Malvin (W)	67-59	Aguada (W)
30/04/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Malvin (W)	77-63	Aguada (W)
10/08/25 Uruguay Liga Women	Aguada (W)	58-88	Malvin (W)
05/07/25 Uruguay Liga Women	Malvin (W)	57-46	Aguada (W)

Standings · Uruguay Liga Women · LFB, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Defensor Sporting (W)	8	7	1	631	473	15
2	Malvin (W)	8	7	1	544	477	15
3	Aguada (W)	8	3	5	565	566	11
4	Club Yale Women	8	2	6	409	613	10
5	Lagomar (W)	8	1	7	461	481	9

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aguada (W)	Malvin (W)
Defensor Sporting (W)	67-80 L	49-83 L
Lagomar (W)	61-53 W	64-53 W
Club Yale Women	95-54 W	76-58 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Aguada (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aguada (W)

WLLWWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/08	Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women	58-80	L
20/08	Urunday Universitario (W) Uruguay Liga Women	92-65	W
16/08	Urunday Universitario (W) Uruguay Liga Women	73-57	W
24/07	Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women	67-82	L
17/07	Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women	67-80	L
13/07	Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women	61-53	W
10/07	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	95-54	W
28/06	Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women	59-67	L
21/06	Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women	85-97	L
18/06	Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women	64-57	W

Malvin (W)

WWWWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/08	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	80-58	W
20/08	Tabare (W) Uruguay Liga Women	61-48	W
16/08	Tabare (W) Uruguay Liga Women	85-44	W
24/07	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	82-67	W
12/07	Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women	49-83	L
09/07	Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women	64-53	W
04/07	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	76-58	W
28/06	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	67-59	W
18/06	Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women	66-55	W
14/06	Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women	65-49	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguada (W) vs Malvin (W)?

Our model gives 73% to Malvin (W).

How many points are expected in Aguada (W) vs Malvin (W)?

The model estimates 143.6 total points (Aguada (W) 67.5 · Malvin (W) 76.1).