Basketball · Uruguay Liga Women · 27/08, 02:15
Prediction: Malvin (W) vs Aguada (W)
Team pages: Malvin (W) · Aguada (W)
Prediction summary
Estimated points
143.2Total
Malvin (W)77.5
Aguada (W)65.7
1X2
Malvin (W)
Aguada (W)
Recent form · 10 last
Malvin (W)
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Aguada (W)
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Malvin (W)
6–0
Aguada (W)
(6 last)
- Aguada (W)67-82Malvin (W)
- Malvin (W)67-59Aguada (W)
- Malvin (W)77-63Aguada (W)
- Aguada (W)58-88Malvin (W)
- Malvin (W)57-46Aguada (W)
- Aguada (W)57-71Malvin (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Malvin (W) 1597 · Aguada (W) 1506
| Malvin (W) | Aguada (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 26% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
143.2 points · Bet365 line 135.5 · +7.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points143.2Malvin (W) 77.5 · Aguada (W) 65.7
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malvin (W) (rating 1597 vs 1506).
- Malvin (W) is a clear favourite (80% market).
- H2H favours Malvin (W): 6-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Malvin (W) | Aguada (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 69 / 56.9 | 73 / 68.8 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 68.2 / 59 | 72 / 67.4 |
| Est. result | 78 | 66 |
Est. total143.2
Line O/U135.5
Diff.7.7
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Malvin (W) 6–0–0 Aguada (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 Uruguay Liga Women | Aguada (W) | 67-82 | Malvin (W) |
| 28/06/26 Uruguay Liga Women | Malvin (W) | 67-59 | Aguada (W) |
| 30/04/26 Uruguay Liga Women | Malvin (W) | 77-63 | Aguada (W) |
| 10/08/25 Uruguay Liga Women | Aguada (W) | 58-88 | Malvin (W) |
| 05/07/25 Uruguay Liga Women | Malvin (W) | 57-46 | Aguada (W) |
| 16/05/25 Uruguay Liga Women | Aguada (W) | 57-71 | Malvin (W) |
Standings · Uruguay Liga Women · LFB, Women 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Defensor Sporting (W) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 631 | 473 | 15 |
| 2 | Malvin (W) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 544 | 477 | 15 |
| 3 | Aguada (W) | 8 | 3 | 5 | 565 | 566 | 11 |
| 4 | Club Yale Women | 8 | 2 | 6 | 409 | 613 | 10 |
| 5 | Lagomar (W) | 8 | 1 | 7 | 461 | 481 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Malvin (W) | Aguada (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting (W) | 49-83 L | 67-80 L |
| Lagomar (W) | 64-53 W | 61-53 W |
| Club Yale Women | 76-58 W | 95-54 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Aguada (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Malvin (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Tabare (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
61-48 | W |
| 16/08 | Tabare (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
85-44 | W |
| 24/07 | Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
82-67 | W |
| 12/07 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
49-83 | L |
| 09/07 | Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
64-53 | W |
| 04/07 | Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women |
76-58 | W |
| 28/06 | Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
67-59 | W |
| 18/06 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
66-55 | W |
| 14/06 | Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
65-49 | W |
| 08/06 | Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women |
75-53 | W |
Aguada (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Urunday Universitario (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
92-65 | W |
| 16/08 | Urunday Universitario (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
73-57 | W |
| 24/07 | Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
67-82 | L |
| 17/07 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
67-80 | L |
| 13/07 | Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
61-53 | W |
| 10/07 | Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women |
95-54 | W |
| 28/06 | Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
59-67 | L |
| 21/06 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
85-97 | L |
| 18/06 | Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
64-57 | W |
| 15/06 | Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women |
67-76 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Malvin (W) vs Aguada (W)?
Our model gives 80% to Malvin (W).
How many points are expected in Malvin (W) vs Aguada (W)?
The model estimates 143.2 total points (Malvin (W) 77.5 · Aguada (W) 65.7).