Basketball · Lithuania LKL · 17/09, 17:50

Prediction: Gargzdu Gargzdai SC vs Zalgiris

Team pages: Gargzdu Gargzdai SC · Zalgiris

Prediction summary

Estimated points

173.8Total

Gargzdu Gargzdai SC79.7

Zalgiris94.2

1X2

15% 85%

Gargzdu Gargzdai SC Zalgiris

Markets

Over 167.5 points 67%

Recent form · 10 last

Gargzdu Gargzdai SC 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Zalgiris 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gargzdu Gargzdai SC 0–4 Zalgiris (4 last)

Zalgiris85-77Gargzdu Gargzdai SC
Gargzdu Gargzdai SC63-69Zalgiris
Zalgiris108-71Gargzdu Gargzdai SC
Gargzdu Gargzdai SC73-89Zalgiris

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gargzdu Gargzdai SC 1473 · Zalgiris 1642

	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC	Zalgiris
Our model	39%	61%
Market	8%	92%

Estimated total (ours) 173.8 points · Bet365 line 167.5 · +6.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points173.8Gargzdu Gargzdai SC 79.7 · Zalgiris 94.2

Over / Under 167.5Over · 67%recent trend · ~161.7 pts · strength 6

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zalgiris (rating 1473 vs 1642).
Zalgiris is a clear favourite (85% market).
H2H favours Zalgiris: 4-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC	Zalgiris
Points F\|A (Last 10)	87.7 / 90	98.3 / 79.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	85 / 88.4	100 / 77.8
Est. result	80	94

Est. total173.8

Line O/U167.5

Diff.6.3

Over / Under67% / 33%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

111.00

21.02

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+21.5)1.83

2 (-21.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 167.51.83

Under 167.51.83

Diff.: 10.2 · Est. total: 177.7

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 13:46

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	8.38 → 9.17▲	Pinn 9.17
2	1.03 → 1.03▼	Pinn 1.03

See the full journey (7)

Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	2
18:09 +39’	8.38	1.03
20:46 +1’	9.85▲	1.02▼
21:09 +39’	9.54▼	1.02▲
23:57 +49’	9.46▼	1.02
11:35 +12’	9.04▼	1.03▲
11:52 +55’	9.07▲	1.03
13:41 +5’	9.17▲	1.03▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gargzdu Gargzdai SC 0–0–4 Zalgiris

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Lithuania LKL	Zalgiris	85-77	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC
15/02/26 Lithuania LKL	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC	63-69	Zalgiris
07/12/25 Lithuania LKL	Zalgiris	108-71	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC
26/10/25 Lithuania LKL	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC	73-89	Zalgiris

Standings · Lithuania LKL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Zalgiris	1	1	0	98	77
2	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC	1	0	1	77	98
3	Jonava	0	0	0	0	0
3	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0
3	Lietkabelis	0	0	0	0	0
3	Neptunas	0	0	0	0	0
3	Nevezis	0	0	0	0	0
3	Rytas Vilnius	0	0	0	0	0
3	Siauliai	0	0	0	0	0
3	Taurages Taurage	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC	Zalgiris
Lietkabelis	78-69 W	103-93 W
Jonava	104-109 L	90-75 W
Nevezis	90-85 W	98-80 W
Juventus	103-98 W	95-77 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Zalgiris (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gargzdu Gargzdai SC

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/05	Neptunas Lithuania LKL	74-84	L
21/05	Neptunas Lithuania LKL	73-100	L
16/05	Rytas Vilnius Lithuania LKL	103-98	W
10/05	Neptunas Lithuania LKL	97-91	W
06/05	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	78-69	W
02/05	Jonava Lithuania LKL	104-109	L
26/04	Nevezis Lithuania LKL	90-85	W
22/04	Zalgiris Lithuania LKL	77-85	L
18/04	Juventus Lithuania LKL	103-98	W
15/04	Siauliai Lithuania LKL	78-81	L

Zalgiris

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/06	Juventus Lithuania LKL	95-77	W
09/06	Juventus Lithuania LKL	100-69	W
07/06	Juventus Lithuania LKL	107-75	W
31/05	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	103-93	W
28/05	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	95-75	W
26/05	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	85-75	W
22/05	Jonava Lithuania LKL	90-75	W
20/05	Jonava Lithuania LKL	102-82	W
17/05	Nevezis Lithuania LKL	98-80	W
15/05	Juventus Lithuania LKL	108-93	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gargzdu Gargzdai SC vs Zalgiris?

Our model gives 85% to Zalgiris.

How many points are expected in Gargzdu Gargzdai SC vs Zalgiris?

The model estimates 173.8 total points (Gargzdu Gargzdai SC 79.7 · Zalgiris 94.2).

Over or under 167.5 points?

Recent history points to over 167.5 points (67%).