Basketball · Italy Lega 1 · 27/09, 16:00
Prediction: Milano vs Trieste
Prediction summary
Estimated points
169.8Total
Milano92.5
Trieste77.4
1X2
Milano
Trieste
Recent form · 10 last
Milano
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Trieste
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Milano
4–2
Trieste
(6 last)
- Milano86-78Trieste
- Milano94-86Trieste
- Trieste86-82Milano
- Milano87-74Trieste
- Trieste84-78Milano
- Trieste59-65Milano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Milano 1567 · Trieste 1450
| Milano | Trieste | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 23% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
169.8 points · Bet365 line 168.5 · +1.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points169.8Milano 92.5 · Trieste 77.4
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Milano (rating 1567 vs 1450).
- Milano is a clear favourite (86% market).
- H2H favours Milano: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Milano | Trieste | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 88.7 / 78.8 | 83.1 / 86.2 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 93.2 / 85.2 | 82.4 / 86.2 |
| Est. result | 93 | 77 |
Est. total169.8
Line O/U168.5
Diff.1.3
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Milano 4–0–2 Trieste
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Italy Lega 1 | Milano | 86-78 | Trieste |
| 18/02/26 Coppa Italia | Milano | 94-86 | Trieste |
| 23/11/25 Italy Lega 1 | Trieste | 86-82 | Milano |
| 26/01/25 Italy Lega 1 | Milano | 87-74 | Trieste |
| 29/09/24 Italy Lega 1 | Trieste | 84-78 | Milano |
| 05/02/23 Italy Lega 1 | Trieste | 59-65 | Milano |
Standings · Italy Lega 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Udine | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Trento | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Scafati | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | BC Roma SPQR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Derthona Basket | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Maxima Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Napoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Milano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cantu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Reggio Emilia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Trieste | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Varese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Venezia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Verona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Treviso | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Virtus Bologna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Milano
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
86-72 | W |
| 16/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
97-109 | L |
| 13/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
92-79 | W |
| 11/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
100-80 | W |
| 05/06 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
91-86 | W |
| 03/06 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
93-68 | W |
| 31/05 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
79-85 | L |
| 29/05 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
88-72 | W |
| 21/05 | Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1 |
84-72 | W |
| 18/05 | Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1 |
77-65 | W |
Trieste
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
75-90 | L |
| 23/05 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
83-77 | W |
| 21/05 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
80-84 | L |
| 18/05 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
82-90 | L |
| 16/05 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
92-90 | W |
| 10/05 | Vanoli Cremona Italy Lega 1 |
89-94 | L |
| 03/05 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
78-86 | L |
| 26/04 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
81-95 | L |
| 19/04 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
82-86 | L |
| 12/04 | Udine Italy Lega 1 |
89-70 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Milano vs Trieste?
Our model gives 86% to Milano.
How many points are expected in Milano vs Trieste?
The model estimates 169.8 total points (Milano 92.5 · Trieste 77.4).