Basketball · France Ligue B · 23/10, 20:00

Prediction: Aix Maurienne vs Rouen

Team pages: Aix Maurienne · Rouen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

170Total

Aix Maurienne85.2

Rouen84.8

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

51% 49%

Aix Maurienne Rouen

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Under 169.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

Aix Maurienne 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLWLLW

Rouen 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLLWLW

Head-to-head

Aix Maurienne 4–2 Rouen (6 last)

Rouen108-111Aix Maurienne
Aix Maurienne92-75Rouen
Aix Maurienne93-87Rouen
Rouen78-90Aix Maurienne
Rouen91-85Aix Maurienne
Aix Maurienne63-93Rouen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aix Maurienne 1491 · Rouen 1507

	Aix Maurienne	Rouen
Our model	60%	40%
Market	49%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 170 points · Bet365 line 169.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points170Aix Maurienne 85.2 · Rouen 84.8

Over / Under 169.5Under · 70%recent trend · ~163.5 pts · strength 6

Match keys

H2H favours Aix Maurienne: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Aix Maurienne	Rouen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	82.6 / 85.4	85.7 / 81.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	82.4 / 88	82 / 85.6
Est. result	85	85

Est. total170

Line O/U169.5

Diff.0.5

Over / Under30% / 70%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.87

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.83

2 (-1)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 169.51.83

Under 169.51.83

Diff.: 2.05 · Est. total: 167.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.87 → 1.87	Pinn 1.96 ★
2	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.86

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	2
21:44 +6’	1.87	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
20:09 +42’	1.96	1.86

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aix Maurienne 4–0–2 Rouen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 France Ligue B	Rouen	108-111	Aix Maurienne
16/01/26 France Ligue B	Aix Maurienne	92-75	Rouen
24/01/25 France Ligue B	Aix Maurienne	93-87	Rouen
25/10/24 France Ligue B	Rouen	78-90	Aix Maurienne
06/02/24 France Ligue B	Rouen	91-85	Aix Maurienne
13/10/23 France Ligue B	Aix Maurienne	63-93	Rouen

Standings · France Ligue B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Denain	5	4	1	422	368
2	Nantes	5	3	2	402	393
3	Caen Basket Calvados	5	3	2	448	440
4	Antibes	5	3	2	409	403
5	Levallois Basketball	5	3	2	404	404
6	Saint-Chamond	5	3	2	446	448
7	UJAP Quimper	5	3	2	404	383
8	Blois	5	3	2	464	433
9	Chalons-Reims	5	3	2	398	397
10	Hyeres Toulon	5	3	2	409	423
11	Evreux	5	3	2	442	424
12	Poitiers	4	2	2	354	341
13	Orleans	5	2	3	419	418
14	Aix Maurienne	5	2	3	412	440
15	Vichy Clermont	5	2	3	430	444
16	Le Havre	5	2	3	439	433
17	Rouen	5	2	3	410	428
18	Fos-sur-Mer	4	1	3	310	347
19	La Rochelle	5	1	4	437	453
20	Gries-Souffel	5	1	4	394	433

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aix Maurienne	Rouen
Denain	77-95 L	93-78 W
Poitiers	79-81 L	88-90 L
Vendee Challans Basket	98-87 W	98-77 W
Vichy Clermont	85-83 W	97-101 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Rouen (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aix Maurienne

WLWLLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/10	Levallois Basketball France Ligue B	85-78	W
16/10	Denain France Ligue B	77-95	L
09/10	Chalons-Reims France Ligue B	59-87	L
02/10	Le Havre France Ligue B	100-85	W
25/09	Caen Basket Calvados France Ligue B	91-95	L
15/05	Chalons-Reims France Ligue B	77-83	L
08/05	Poitiers France Ligue B	79-81	L
01/05	Vendee Challans Basket France Ligue B	98-87	W
24/04	Denain France Ligue B	75-80	L
21/04	Vichy Clermont France Ligue B	85-83	W

Rouen

LWWWWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/10	La Rochelle France Ligue B	76-75	W
16/10	Nantes France Ligue B	78-83	L
09/10	Blois France Ligue B	85-78	W
03/10	Orleans France Ligue B	74-91	L
25/09	Vichy Clermont France Ligue B	97-101	L
15/05	Vendee Challans Basket France Ligue B	98-77	W
09/05	Orleans France Ligue B	84-72	W
30/04	Denain France Ligue B	93-78	W
28/04	Blois France Ligue B	84-67	W
24/04	Poitiers France Ligue B	88-90	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aix Maurienne vs Rouen?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Aix Maurienne 51% · Rouen 49%).

How many points are expected in Aix Maurienne vs Rouen?

The model estimates 170 total points (Aix Maurienne 85.2 · Rouen 84.8).

Over or under 169.5 points?

Recent history points to under 169.5 points (70%).