Basketball · Japan B League Premier · 08/10, 12:05

Prediction: Tokyo Alvark vs Saga Ballooners

Team pages: Tokyo Alvark · Saga Ballooners

Prediction summary

Estimated points

172.8Total

Tokyo Alvark93.7

Saga Ballooners79.1

1X2

85% 15%

Tokyo Alvark Saga Ballooners

Recent form · 10 last

Tokyo Alvark 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Saga Ballooners 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tokyo Alvark 4–2 Saga Ballooners (6 last)

Tokyo Alvark96-83Saga Ballooners
Tokyo Alvark78-71Saga Ballooners
Saga Ballooners90-77Tokyo Alvark
Saga Ballooners91-64Tokyo Alvark
Tokyo Alvark79-66Saga Ballooners
Tokyo Alvark79-74Saga Ballooners

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tokyo Alvark 1544 · Saga Ballooners 1477

	Tokyo Alvark	Saga Ballooners
Our model	71%	29%
Market	88%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 172.8 points · Bet365 line 166.5 · +6.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points172.8Tokyo Alvark 93.7 · Saga Ballooners 79.1

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tokyo Alvark (rating 1544 vs 1477).
Tokyo Alvark is a clear favourite (85% market).
H2H favours Tokyo Alvark: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Tokyo Alvark	Saga Ballooners
Points F\|A (Last 10)	92.1 / 90.1	81.3 / 84.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	89.6 / 91.2	77 / 89.8
Est. result	94	79

Est. total172.8

Line O/U166.5

Diff.6.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.06

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-14.5)1.83

2 (+14.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 166.51.83

Under 166.51.83

Diff.: 7.4 · Est. total: 173.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.06 → 1.06	Bet365 1.06
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7%

Time*	1	2
15:50 +4’	1.06	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tokyo Alvark 4–0–2 Saga Ballooners

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Japan B League Premier	Tokyo Alvark	96-83	Saga Ballooners
14/02/26 Japan B League Premier	Tokyo Alvark	78-71	Saga Ballooners
07/12/25 Japan B League Premier	Saga Ballooners	90-77	Tokyo Alvark
06/12/25 Japan B League Premier	Saga Ballooners	91-64	Tokyo Alvark
27/10/24 Japan B League Premier	Tokyo Alvark	79-66	Saga Ballooners
26/10/24 Japan B League Premier	Tokyo Alvark	79-74	Saga Ballooners

Standings · Japan B League Premier · Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Hiroshima Dragonflies	5	5	0	458	379
2	Nagoya Diamond Dolphins	4	4	0	358	294
3	San En Neo Phoenix	4	4	0	361	307
4	Kyoto Hannaryz	5	4	1	427	393
5	Mikawa Seahorses	4	3	1	352	297
6	Shimane Susanoo Magic	5	3	2	422	400
7	Shinshu Brave Warriors	4	2	2	351	349
8	Ryukyu Golden Kings	4	2	2	324	343
9	Shiga Lakes	5	2	3	445	430
10	Kobe Storks	4	1	3	298	336
11	Osaka Evessa	5	1	4	328	396
12	Nagasaki Velca	4	0	4	283	348
13	Saga Ballooners	4	0	4	298	379

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tokyo Alvark

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/10	Chiba Jets Japan B League Premier	96-71	W
02/10	Chiba Jets Japan B League Premier	138-131	W
23/09	Ryukyu Golden Kings Japan B League 1	74-85	L
22/09	Ryukyu Golden Kings Japan B League 1	84-73	W
08/05	Nagasaki Velca Japan B League Premier	56-96	L
07/05	Nagasaki Velca Japan B League Premier	78-93	L
03/05	Levanga Hokkaido Japan B League Premier	96-97	L
02/05	Levanga Hokkaido Japan B League Premier	111-104	W
26/04	Shiga Lakes Japan B League Premier	87-77	W
25/04	Shiga Lakes Japan B League Premier	101-74	W

Saga Ballooners

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/10	San En Neo Phoenix Japan B League Premier	89-93	L
03/10	San En Neo Phoenix Japan B League Premier	61-97	L
27/09	Hiroshima Dragonflies Japan B League 1	61-89	L
25/09	Hiroshima Dragonflies Japan B League 1	87-100	L
03/05	Akita Northern Happinets Japan B League Premier	87-70	W
02/05	Akita Northern Happinets Japan B League Premier	85-72	W
26/04	Ryukyu Golden Kings Japan B League Premier	91-96	L
25/04	Ryukyu Golden Kings Japan B League Premier	78-92	L
22/04	Nagoya Diamond Dolphins Japan B League Premier	71-66	W
19/04	Fighting Eagles Nagoya Japan B League Premier	103-68	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tokyo Alvark vs Saga Ballooners?

Our model gives 85% to Tokyo Alvark.

How many points are expected in Tokyo Alvark vs Saga Ballooners?

The model estimates 172.8 total points (Tokyo Alvark 93.7 · Saga Ballooners 79.1).