Basketball · Japan B League Premier · 08/11, 09:05

Prediction: Tokyo Alvark vs San En Neo Phoenix

Team pages: Tokyo Alvark · San En Neo Phoenix

Prediction summary

Estimated points

174.2Total

Tokyo Alvark88.5

San En Neo Phoenix85.7

1X2

58% 42%

Tokyo Alvark San En Neo Phoenix

Recent form · 10 last

Tokyo Alvark 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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San En Neo Phoenix 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tokyo Alvark 1–5 San En Neo Phoenix (6 last)

Tokyo Alvark94-98San En Neo Phoenix
Tokyo Alvark83-93San En Neo Phoenix
Tokyo Alvark80-75San En Neo Phoenix
San En Neo Phoenix89-67Tokyo Alvark
Tokyo Alvark72-82San En Neo Phoenix
San En Neo Phoenix90-82Tokyo Alvark

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tokyo Alvark 1535 · San En Neo Phoenix 1617

	Tokyo Alvark	San En Neo Phoenix
Our model	51%	49%
Market	60%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 174.2 points · Bet365 line 175.5 · -1.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points174.2Tokyo Alvark 88.5 · San En Neo Phoenix 85.7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San En Neo Phoenix (rating 1535 vs 1617).
H2H favours San En Neo Phoenix: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Tokyo Alvark	San En Neo Phoenix
Points F\|A (Last 10)	92.2 / 82.5	87.9 / 80.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	93.8 / 87.2	85 / 83.8
Est. result	89	86

Est. total174.2

Line O/U175.5

Diff.1.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.55

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.83

2 (+3.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 175.51.83

Under 175.51.83

Diff.: 3.95 · Est. total: 171.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	2
11:38 +42’	1.55	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tokyo Alvark 1–0–5 San En Neo Phoenix

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Japan B League Premier	Tokyo Alvark	94-98	San En Neo Phoenix
28/03/26 Japan B League Premier	Tokyo Alvark	83-93	San En Neo Phoenix
10/01/26 Japan Emperor Cup	Tokyo Alvark	80-75	San En Neo Phoenix
09/04/25 Japan B League Premier	San En Neo Phoenix	89-67	Tokyo Alvark
18/12/24 Japan B League Premier	Tokyo Alvark	72-82	San En Neo Phoenix
20/10/24 Japan B League Premier	San En Neo Phoenix	90-82	Tokyo Alvark

Standings · Japan B League Premier · Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Nagoya Diamond Dolphins	10	10	0	925	736
2	Hiroshima Dragonflies	14	13	1	1265	1108
3	San En Neo Phoenix	9	7	2	786	726
4	Mikawa Seahorses	11	8	3	988	872
5	Kyoto Hannaryz	12	8	4	1015	922
6	Ryukyu Golden Kings	13	7	6	1106	1069
7	Shiga Lakes	13	6	7	1107	1147
8	Nagasaki Velca	15	6	9	1151	1204
9	Shinshu Brave Warriors	14	5	9	1165	1203
10	Shimane Susanoo Magic	12	4	8	974	993
11	Kobe Storks	13	3	10	1026	1119
12	Saga Ballooners	13	1	12	992	1222
13	Osaka Evessa	13	1	12	882	1172

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tokyo Alvark	San En Neo Phoenix
Saga Ballooners	112-88 W	93-89 W
Ibaraki Robots	66-69 L	81-75 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tokyo Alvark

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
06/11	Sendai 89ers Japan B League Premier	69-96	L
01/11	Utsunomiya Brex Japan B League Premier	106-71	W
31/10	Utsunomiya Brex Japan B League Premier	100-90	W
26/10	Saga Ballooners Japan B League Premier	112-88	W
24/10	Mikawa Seahorses Japan B League Premier	82-91	L
22/10	Ibaraki Robots Japan B League Premier	66-69	L
19/10	Akita Northern Happinets Japan B League Premier	90-74	W
17/10	Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League Premier	100-86	W
12/10	Osaka Evessa Japan B League Premier	103-78	W
10/10	Kanagawa Brave Thunders Japan B League Premier	94-82	W

San En Neo Phoenix

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	Ryukyu Golden Kings Japan B League Premier	96-86	W
31/10	Ryukyu Golden Kings Japan B League Premier	80-86	L
24/10	Kobe Storks Japan B League Premier	91-89	W
19/10	Hiroshima Dragonflies Japan B League Premier	75-77	L
10/10	Shinshu Brave Warriors Japan B League Premier	83-81	W
04/10	Saga Ballooners Japan B League Premier	93-89	W
03/10	Saga Ballooners Japan B League Premier	97-61	W
27/09	Ibaraki Robots Japan B League Premier	81-75	W
25/09	Ibaraki Robots Japan B League 1	90-82	W
03/05	Nagoya Diamond Dolphins Japan B League Premier	93-79	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tokyo Alvark vs San En Neo Phoenix?

Our model gives 58% to Tokyo Alvark.

How many points are expected in Tokyo Alvark vs San En Neo Phoenix?

The model estimates 174.2 total points (Tokyo Alvark 88.5 · San En Neo Phoenix 85.7).