Basketball · Belgium Top Division 1 · 23/10, 20:45

Prediction: Falco Gent vs BC Guco Lier

Team pages: Falco Gent · BC Guco Lier

Prediction summary

Estimated points

164.5Total

Falco Gent77.7

BC Guco Lier86.7

1X2

26% 74%

Falco Gent BC Guco Lier

Recent form · 10 last

Falco Gent 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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BC Guco Lier 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Falco Gent 2–3 BC Guco Lier (5 last)

BC Guco Lier87-71Falco Gent
Falco Gent66-75BC Guco Lier
BC Guco Lier89-68Falco Gent
BC Guco Lier65-84Falco Gent
Falco Gent73-69BC Guco Lier

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Falco Gent 1396 · BC Guco Lier 1596

	Falco Gent	BC Guco Lier
Our model	35%	65%
Market	24%	76%

Estimated total (ours) 164.5 points · Bet365 line 162.5 · +2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points164.5Falco Gent 77.7 · BC Guco Lier 86.7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BC Guco Lier (rating 1396 vs 1596).
BC Guco Lier is a clear favourite (74% market).
H2H favours BC Guco Lier: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Falco Gent	BC Guco Lier
Points F\|A (Last 10)	78.5 / 84.7	92.7 / 77.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	76.8 / 80.2	97.8 / 78
Est. result	78	87

Est. total164.5

Line O/U162.5

Diff.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.90

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+9.5)1.83

2 (-9.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 162.51.83

Under 162.51.83

Diff.: 4.2 · Est. total: 166.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 14.1%

Time*	1	2
11:34 +14’	3.90	1.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
20:49 +6’	3.32	1.19

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Falco Gent 2–0–3 BC Guco Lier

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Belgium Top Division 1	BC Guco Lier	87-71	Falco Gent
31/10/25 Belgium Top Division 1	Falco Gent	66-75	BC Guco Lier
16/02/25 Belgium Top Division 1	BC Guco Lier	89-68	Falco Gent
21/04/24 Belgium Top Division 1	BC Guco Lier	65-84	Falco Gent
19/04/24 Belgium Top Division 1	Falco Gent	73-69	BC Guco Lier

Standings · Belgium Top Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Remant Basics Melsele-Beveren	6	5	1	549	474	11
2	Basket SKT Ieper	6	5	1	462	441	11
3	LDP Donza	6	5	1	523	469	11
4	Basket Willebroek	6	4	2	529	497	10
5	BBC Croonen Lommel	6	3	3	465	455	9
6	Port of Antwerp Giants B	6	2	4	484	549	8
7	BC Guco Lier	4	4	0	415	295	8
8	Basket Team Waregem	5	3	2	450	415	8
9	Falco Gent	6	2	4	492	483	8
10	Avanti Brugge Knights	6	2	4	438	506	8
11	BCCA Neufchateau	6	1	5	453	530	7
12	Kontich Wolves	6	1	5	482	543	7
13	Bavi Vilvoorde	5	1	4	326	379	6
14	United Woluwe	4	1	3	332	364	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Falco Gent	BC Guco Lier
Basket Willebroek	62-91 L	95-66 W
Basket Team Waregem	89-65 W	98-78 W
Port of Antwerp Giants B	80-84 L	111-82 W
CB Liege	75-95 L	74-95 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Falco Gent

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	Basket Willebroek Belgium Top Division 1	62-91	L
09/10	Basket Team Waregem Belgium Top Division 1	89-65	W
02/10	Port of Antwerp Giants B Belgium Top Division 1	80-84	L
19/09	BBC Croonen Lommel Belgium Top Division 1	78-79	L
11/09	United Woluwe Belgium Top Division 1	75-82	L
04/09	Kontich Wolves Belgium Top Division 1	108-82	W
26/04	CB Liege Belgium Top Division 1	75-95	L
24/04	CB Liege Belgium Top Division 1	70-100	L
17/04	Port of Antwerp Giants B Belgium Top Division 1	71-85	L
11/04	Spirou Charleroi B Belgium Top Division 1	77-84	L

BC Guco Lier

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	LDP Donza Belgium Top Division 1	88-78	W
10/10	Basket Willebroek Belgium Top Division 1	95-66	W
04/10	Avanti Brugge Knights Belgium Top Division 1	121-69	W
18/09	Port of Antwerp Giants B Belgium Top Division 1	111-82	W
12/05	CB Liege Belgium Top Division 1	74-95	L
10/05	CB Liege Belgium Top Division 1	94-72	W
08/05	CB Liege Belgium Top Division 1	77-91	L
03/05	BCCA Neufchateau Belgium Top Division 1	82-73	W
01/05	BCCA Neufchateau Belgium Top Division 1	87-71	W
28/04	Basket Team Waregem Belgium Top Division 1	98-78	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Falco Gent vs BC Guco Lier?

Our model gives 74% to BC Guco Lier.

How many points are expected in Falco Gent vs BC Guco Lier?

The model estimates 164.5 total points (Falco Gent 77.7 · BC Guco Lier 86.7).