Basketball · Belgium Top Division 1 · 18/10, 14:30

Prediction: BC Guco Lier vs LDP Donza

Team pages: BC Guco Lier · LDP Donza

Prediction summary

Estimated points

166.9Total

BC Guco Lier87.5

LDP Donza79.4

1X2

72% 28%

BC Guco Lier LDP Donza

Recent form · 10 last

BC Guco Lier 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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LDP Donza 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

BC Guco Lier 2–4 LDP Donza (6 last)

LDP Donza90-81BC Guco Lier
BC Guco Lier89-84LDP Donza
BC Guco Lier57-77LDP Donza
LDP Donza94-78BC Guco Lier
BC Guco Lier76-71LDP Donza
BC Guco Lier73-79LDP Donza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BC Guco Lier 1592 · LDP Donza 1574

	BC Guco Lier	LDP Donza
Our model	65%	35%
Market	74%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 166.9 points · Bet365 line 166.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points166.9BC Guco Lier 87.5 · LDP Donza 79.4

Match keys

BC Guco Lier is a clear favourite (72% market).
H2H favours LDP Donza: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	BC Guco Lier	LDP Donza
Points F\|A (Last 10)	93 / 77.4	86.7 / 78.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	99 / 76.8	89 / 76.2
Est. result	88	79

Est. total166.9

Line O/U166.5

Diff.0.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.26

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-8.5)1.83

2 (+8.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 166.51.83

Under 166.51.83

Diff.: 1.45 · Est. total: 167.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.26 → 1.26	Bet365 1.26
2	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.65 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 14.5%

Time*	1	2
12:48 +7’	1.26	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
12:48 +7’	1.15	3.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · BC Guco Lier 2–0–4 LDP Donza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Belgium Top Division 1	LDP Donza	90-81	BC Guco Lier
26/10/25 Belgium Top Division 1	BC Guco Lier	89-84	LDP Donza
29/04/25 Belgium Top Division 1	BC Guco Lier	57-77	LDP Donza
27/04/25 Belgium Top Division 1	LDP Donza	94-78	BC Guco Lier
25/04/25 Belgium Top Division 1	BC Guco Lier	76-71	LDP Donza
23/02/25 Belgium Top Division 1	BC Guco Lier	73-79	LDP Donza

Standings · Belgium Top Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Remant Basics Melsele-Beveren	5	5	0	462	377	10
2	LDP Donza	5	5	0	445	381	10
3	Basket SKT Ieper	5	4	1	381	366	9
4	Basket Willebroek	5	3	2	438	435	8
5	Port of Antwerp Giants B	5	2	3	409	468	7
6	BBC Croonen Lommel	5	2	3	368	368	7
7	Falco Gent	5	2	3	430	392	7
8	Avanti Brugge Knights	5	2	3	366	414	7
9	Kontich Wolves	5	1	4	400	452	6
10	Bavi Vilvoorde	5	1	4	326	379	6
11	BC Guco Lier	3	3	0	327	217	6
12	Basket Team Waregem	4	2	2	358	343	6
13	United Woluwe	4	1	3	332	364	5
14	BCCA Neufchateau	5	0	5	362	448	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BC Guco Lier	LDP Donza
Port of Antwerp Giants B	111-82 W	88-74 W
BCCA Neufchateau	82-73 W	110-81 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BC Guco Lier

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	Basket Willebroek Belgium Top Division 1	95-66	W
04/10	Avanti Brugge Knights Belgium Top Division 1	121-69	W
18/09	Port of Antwerp Giants B Belgium Top Division 1	111-82	W
12/05	CB Liege Belgium Top Division 1	74-95	L
10/05	CB Liege Belgium Top Division 1	94-72	W
08/05	CB Liege Belgium Top Division 1	77-91	L
03/05	BCCA Neufchateau Belgium Top Division 1	82-73	W
01/05	BCCA Neufchateau Belgium Top Division 1	87-71	W
28/04	Basket Team Waregem Belgium Top Division 1	98-78	W
26/04	Basket Team Waregem Belgium Top Division 1	91-77	W

LDP Donza

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	Port of Antwerp Giants B Belgium Top Division 1	88-74	W
02/10	United Woluwe Belgium Top Division 1	99-94	W
19/09	Kontich Wolves Belgium Top Division 1	77-66	W
12/09	BBC Croonen Lommel Belgium Top Division 1	71-66	W
05/09	BCCA Neufchateau Belgium Top Division 1	110-81	W
26/04	BBC Croonen Lommel Belgium Top Division 1	66-67	L
24/04	BBC Croonen Lommel Belgium Top Division 1	84-87	L
17/04	United Woluwe Belgium Top Division 1	103-79	W
11/04	BBC Croonen Lommel Belgium Top Division 1	93-87	W
03/04	Kontich Wolves Belgium Top Division 1	76-87	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BC Guco Lier vs LDP Donza?

Our model gives 72% to BC Guco Lier.

How many points are expected in BC Guco Lier vs LDP Donza?

The model estimates 166.9 total points (BC Guco Lier 87.5 · LDP Donza 79.4).