Prediction: Tauranga Whai vs Otago Nuggets
The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.
| Tauranga Whai | Otago Nuggets | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Tauranga Whai: 4-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Tauranga Whai | Otago Nuggets | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 83.9 / 93 | 87.7 / 88.9 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 87.6 / 101.2 | 89.6 / 83 |
| Est. result | 89 | 87 |
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tauranga Whai 4–0–1 Otago Nuggets
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 New Zealand NBL | Otago Nuggets | 92-81 | Tauranga Whai |
| 27/06/25 New Zealand NBL | Otago Nuggets | 82-88 | Tauranga Whai |
| 19/03/25 New Zealand NBL | Tauranga Whai | 97-82 | Otago Nuggets |
| 23/06/24 New Zealand NBL | Otago Nuggets | 59-66 | Tauranga Whai |
| 08/05/24 New Zealand NBL | Tauranga Whai | 70-69 | Otago Nuggets |
Standings · New Zealand NBL
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southland Sharks | 19 | 16 | 3 | 1833 | 1649 | 32 |
| 2 | Canterbury Rams | 19 | 15 | 4 | 1849 | 1609 | 30 |
| 3 | Auckland Tuatara | 19 | 15 | 4 | 1811 | 1586 | 30 |
| 4 | Wellington Saints | 18 | 13 | 5 | 1782 | 1626 | 26 |
| 5 | Otago Nuggets | 19 | 10 | 9 | 1652 | 1649 | 20 |
| 6 | Manawatu Jets | 19 | 7 | 12 | 1754 | 1904 | 14 |
| 7 | Nelson Giants | 19 | 6 | 13 | 1659 | 1725 | 12 |
| 8 | Franklin Bulls | 18 | 6 | 12 | 1602 | 1702 | 12 |
| 9 | Taranaki Airs | 19 | 6 | 13 | 1579 | 1706 | 12 |
| 10 | Tauranga Whai | 18 | 6 | 12 | 1527 | 1685 | 12 |
| 11 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 19 | 3 | 16 | 1641 | 1848 | 6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tauranga Whai | Otago Nuggets |
|---|---|---|
| Wellington Saints | 95-107 L | 90-91 L |
| Auckland Tuatara | 59-109 L | 84-80 W |
| Franklin Bulls | 93-79 W | 92-88 W |
| Canterbury Rams | 69-101 L | 58-93 L |
| Manawatu Jets | 96-92 W | 97-104 L |
| Taranaki Airs | 73-85 L | 90-77 W |
| Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 94-88 W | 92-79 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 4 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Otago Nuggets (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tauranga Whai
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
95-107 | L |
| 10/07 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
95-109 | L |
| 04/07 | Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL |
59-109 | L |
| 27/06 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
93-79 | W |
| 24/06 | Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL |
96-102 | L |
| 19/06 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
69-101 | L |
| 14/06 | Manawatu Jets New Zealand NBL |
96-92 | W |
| 12/06 | Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL |
73-85 | L |
| 06/06 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
69-58 | W |
| 30/05 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
94-88 | W |
Otago Nuggets
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
92-79 | W |
| 12/07 | Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL |
84-80 | W |
| 10/07 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
92-88 | W |
| 04/07 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
90-91 | L |
| 27/06 | Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL |
90-77 | W |
| 25/06 | Manawatu Jets New Zealand NBL |
97-104 | L |
| 20/06 | Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL |
91-87 | W |
| 13/06 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
58-93 | L |
| 07/06 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
90-96 | L |
| 05/06 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
93-94 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tauranga Whai vs Otago Nuggets?
Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Tauranga Whai 56% · Otago Nuggets 44%).
How many points are expected in Tauranga Whai vs Otago Nuggets?
The model estimates 176.1 total points (Tauranga Whai 89.1 · Otago Nuggets 87).