Basketball · New Zealand NBL · 30/07, 09:00
Prediction: Wellington Saints vs Otago Nuggets
Team pages: Wellington Saints · Otago Nuggets
Prediction summary
Estimated points
183.5Total
Wellington Saints99
Otago Nuggets84.5
1X2
Wellington Saints
Otago Nuggets
Recent form · 10 last
Wellington Saints
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Otago Nuggets
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Wellington Saints
5–1
Otago Nuggets
(6 last)
- Otago Nuggets90-91Wellington Saints
- Wellington Saints96-90Otago Nuggets
- Wellington Saints91-79Otago Nuggets
- Otago Nuggets99-111Wellington Saints
- Wellington Saints106-80Otago Nuggets
- Otago Nuggets105-98Wellington Saints
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Wellington Saints 1571 · Otago Nuggets 1503
| Wellington Saints | Otago Nuggets | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
183.5 points · Bet365 line 185.5 · -2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points183.5Wellington Saints 99 · Otago Nuggets 84.5
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wellington Saints (rating 1571 vs 1503).
- Wellington Saints is a clear favourite (85% market).
- H2H favours Wellington Saints: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Wellington Saints | Otago Nuggets | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 99.7 / 91.6 | 85 / 90.2 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 106 / 92.8 | 84.8 / 89 |
| Est. result | 99 | 85 |
Est. total183.5
Line O/U185.5
Diff.2
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Wellington Saints 5–0–1 Otago Nuggets
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/26 New Zealand NBL | Otago Nuggets | 90-91 | Wellington Saints |
| 07/06/26 New Zealand NBL | Wellington Saints | 96-90 | Otago Nuggets |
| 31/05/25 New Zealand NBL | Wellington Saints | 91-79 | Otago Nuggets |
| 12/04/25 New Zealand NBL | Otago Nuggets | 99-111 | Wellington Saints |
| 29/06/24 New Zealand NBL | Wellington Saints | 106-80 | Otago Nuggets |
| 13/04/24 New Zealand NBL | Otago Nuggets | 105-98 | Wellington Saints |
Standings · New Zealand NBL
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canterbury Rams | 20 | 16 | 4 | 1938 | 1675 | 32 |
| 2 | Auckland Tuatara | 20 | 16 | 4 | 1920 | 1671 | 32 |
| 3 | Southland Sharks | 20 | 16 | 4 | 1927 | 1768 | 32 |
| 4 | Wellington Saints | 20 | 15 | 5 | 2008 | 1802 | 30 |
| 5 | Otago Nuggets | 20 | 10 | 10 | 1718 | 1756 | 20 |
| 6 | Manawatu Jets | 20 | 8 | 12 | 1876 | 1980 | 16 |
| 7 | Tauranga Whai | 20 | 8 | 12 | 1725 | 1829 | 16 |
| 8 | Nelson Giants | 20 | 6 | 14 | 1737 | 1816 | 12 |
| 9 | Taranaki Airs | 20 | 6 | 14 | 1664 | 1815 | 12 |
| 10 | Franklin Bulls | 20 | 6 | 14 | 1744 | 1913 | 12 |
| 11 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 20 | 3 | 17 | 1723 | 1955 | 6 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Wellington Saints | Otago Nuggets |
|---|---|---|
| Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 107-82 W | 92-79 W |
| Tauranga Whai | 107-95 W | 66-107 L |
| Canterbury Rams | 88-98 L | 58-93 L |
| Franklin Bulls | 81-67 W | 92-88 W |
| Auckland Tuatara | 88-96 L | 84-80 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Wellington Saints (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Wellington Saints
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL |
119-94 | W |
| 23/07 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
107-82 | W |
| 18/07 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
107-95 | W |
| 12/07 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
88-98 | L |
| 10/07 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
109-95 | W |
| 04/07 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
91-90 | W |
| 27/06 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
111-109 | W |
| 21/06 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
81-67 | W |
| 14/06 | Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL |
88-96 | L |
| 07/06 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
96-90 | W |
Otago Nuggets
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
66-107 | L |
| 16/07 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
92-79 | W |
| 12/07 | Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL |
84-80 | W |
| 10/07 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
92-88 | W |
| 04/07 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
90-91 | L |
| 27/06 | Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL |
90-77 | W |
| 25/06 | Manawatu Jets New Zealand NBL |
97-104 | L |
| 20/06 | Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL |
91-87 | W |
| 13/06 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
58-93 | L |
| 07/06 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
90-96 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Wellington Saints vs Otago Nuggets?
Our model gives 85% to Wellington Saints.
How many points are expected in Wellington Saints vs Otago Nuggets?
The model estimates 183.5 total points (Wellington Saints 99 · Otago Nuggets 84.5).