Basketball · New Zealand NBL · 29/07, 09:00
Prediction: Southland Sharks vs Tauranga Whai
Team pages: Southland Sharks · Tauranga Whai
Prediction summary
Estimated points
183.4Total
Southland Sharks97.1
Tauranga Whai86.3
1X2
Southland Sharks
Tauranga Whai
Recent form · 10 last
Southland Sharks
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Tauranga Whai
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Southland Sharks
5–1
Tauranga Whai
(6 last)
- Tauranga Whai96-102Southland Sharks
- Southland Sharks106-84Tauranga Whai
- Southland Sharks98-88Tauranga Whai
- Tauranga Whai78-84Southland Sharks
- Southland Sharks93-82Tauranga Whai
- Tauranga Whai88-73Southland Sharks
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Southland Sharks 1575 · Tauranga Whai 1479
| Southland Sharks | Tauranga Whai | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 26% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
183.4 points · Bet365 line 181.5 · +1.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points183.4Southland Sharks 97.1 · Tauranga Whai 86.3
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southland Sharks (rating 1575 vs 1479).
- Southland Sharks is a clear favourite (78% market).
- H2H favours Southland Sharks: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Southland Sharks | Tauranga Whai | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 96.6 / 88.1 | 87.4 / 92.8 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 97 / 89.2 | 89.4 / 93.8 |
| Est. result | 97 | 86 |
Est. total183.4
Line O/U181.5
Diff.1.9
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Southland Sharks 5–0–1 Tauranga Whai
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/26 New Zealand NBL | Tauranga Whai | 96-102 | Southland Sharks |
| 26/04/26 New Zealand NBL | Southland Sharks | 106-84 | Tauranga Whai |
| 29/06/25 New Zealand NBL | Southland Sharks | 98-88 | Tauranga Whai |
| 17/04/25 New Zealand NBL | Tauranga Whai | 78-84 | Southland Sharks |
| 21/06/24 New Zealand NBL | Southland Sharks | 93-82 | Tauranga Whai |
| 21/04/24 New Zealand NBL | Tauranga Whai | 88-73 | Southland Sharks |
Standings · New Zealand NBL
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canterbury Rams | 20 | 16 | 4 | 1938 | 1675 | 32 |
| 2 | Auckland Tuatara | 20 | 16 | 4 | 1920 | 1671 | 32 |
| 3 | Southland Sharks | 20 | 16 | 4 | 1927 | 1768 | 32 |
| 4 | Wellington Saints | 20 | 15 | 5 | 2008 | 1802 | 30 |
| 5 | Otago Nuggets | 20 | 10 | 10 | 1718 | 1756 | 20 |
| 6 | Manawatu Jets | 20 | 8 | 12 | 1876 | 1980 | 16 |
| 7 | Tauranga Whai | 20 | 8 | 12 | 1725 | 1829 | 16 |
| 8 | Nelson Giants | 20 | 6 | 14 | 1737 | 1816 | 12 |
| 9 | Taranaki Airs | 20 | 6 | 14 | 1664 | 1815 | 12 |
| 10 | Franklin Bulls | 20 | 6 | 14 | 1744 | 1913 | 12 |
| 11 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 20 | 3 | 17 | 1723 | 1955 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Southland Sharks | Tauranga Whai |
|---|---|---|
| Wellington Saints | 94-119 L | 95-107 L |
| Nelson Giants | 83-71 W | 91-78 W |
| Canterbury Rams | 103-98 W | 69-101 L |
| Taranaki Airs | 84-93 L | 73-85 L |
| Franklin Bulls | 86-75 W | 93-79 W |
| Otago Nuggets | 99-89 W | 107-66 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Tauranga Whai (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Southland Sharks
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
94-119 | L |
| 18/07 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
103-62 | W |
| 11/07 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
83-71 | W |
| 01/07 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
103-98 | W |
| 24/06 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
102-96 | W |
| 22/06 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
117-93 | W |
| 18/06 | Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL |
84-93 | L |
| 13/06 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
95-85 | W |
| 07/06 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
86-75 | W |
| 31/05 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
99-89 | W |
Tauranga Whai
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
91-78 | W |
| 22/07 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
107-66 | W |
| 18/07 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
95-107 | L |
| 10/07 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
95-109 | L |
| 04/07 | Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL |
59-109 | L |
| 27/06 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
93-79 | W |
| 24/06 | Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL |
96-102 | L |
| 19/06 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
69-101 | L |
| 14/06 | Manawatu Jets New Zealand NBL |
96-92 | W |
| 12/06 | Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL |
73-85 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Southland Sharks vs Tauranga Whai?
Our model gives 78% to Southland Sharks.
How many points are expected in Southland Sharks vs Tauranga Whai?
The model estimates 183.4 total points (Southland Sharks 97.1 · Tauranga Whai 86.3).