Tennis · WTA Finals WD · 12/11, 01:30
Prediction: Hsieh/Ostapenko vs Mertens/Zhang
Team pages: Hsieh/Ostapenko · Mertens/Zhang
Prediction summary
Winner
Hsieh/Ostapenko
Mertens/Zhang
Estimated games
23.1Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hsieh/Ostapenko
6-4 (W-L)
Mertens/Zhang
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hsieh/Ostapenko 1540 · Mertens/Zhang 1477
| Hsieh/Ostapenko | Mertens/Zhang | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hsieh/Ostapenko (rating 1540 vs 1477).
- Note: Hsieh/Ostapenko makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Hsieh/Ostapenko | Mertens/Zhang | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-12.5 | 11.6-11.5 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 65.8% | 63.8% |
| Break % | 60.2% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +3.6
Over 19.5: 74% · 1.80
Under 19.5: 26% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hsieh/Ostapenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Guo/Mladenovic WTA Finals WD · Hard |
1-2 | 17-21 | L |
| 14/10 | Kenin/Khromacheva WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 09/10 | Routliffe/Sutjiadi WTA Beijing WD · Hard |
1-2 | 19-21 | L |
| 07/10 | Khromacheva/Samsonova WTA Beijing WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/10 | Jiang/Wang WTA Beijing WD · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 08/09 | Mertens/Shnaider US Open WD · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Chan/Joint US Open WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/09 | Bouzkova/Sorribes Tormo US Open WD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Jurak Schreiber/Ruzic US Open WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/08 | Kempen/Panova WTA Cincinnati WD · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Mertens/Zhang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Dabrowski/Stefani WTA Finals WD · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/07 | Hsieh/Wang Wimbledon WD · Grass |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 03/07 | Begu/Cristian Wimbledon WD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/06 | Eikeri/Gleason WTA Berlin WD · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 17/06 | Mihalikova/Nicholls WTA Berlin WD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 01/06 | Guo/Mladenovic French Open WD · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Fossa Huergo/Korpatsch French Open WD · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/05 | Parks/Pigossi French Open WD · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 10/05 | Hsieh/Wang WTA Rome WD · Clay |
1-2 | 18-23 | L |
| 25/04 | Andreeva/Shnaider WTA Madrid WD · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hsieh/Ostapenko vs Mertens/Zhang?
Our model gives 54% to Hsieh/Ostapenko, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.