Tennis · WTA Finals WD · 11/11, 01:30
Prediction: Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez vs Errani/Paolini
Team pages: Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez · Errani/Paolini
Prediction summary
Winner
Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
Errani/Paolini
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
6-4 (W-L)
Errani/Paolini
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
1–1
Errani/Paolini
(2 last)
- 21 Oct2-0 13-8W
- 12 Feb1-2 11-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez 1539 · Errani/Paolini 1611
| Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez | Errani/Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Errani/Paolini (rating 1539 vs 1611).
Statistics
| Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez | Errani/Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.9-12.1 | 14.3-9.9 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 0 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 0.7 |
| 1st serve % | 66.9% | 65.3% |
| Break % | 63.5% | 41% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +4.5
Over 19.5: 78% · 1.72
Under 19.5: 22% · 2.00
H2H · Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez 1 – 1 Errani/Paolini (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez 1–1 Errani/Paolini
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/26 WTA Ningbo WD | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/02/26 WTA Doha WD | 1-2 | 11-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Perez/Schuurs WTA Finals WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/10 | Krawczyk/Stollar WTA Ningbo WD · Hard |
1-2 | 19-22 | L |
| 21/10 | Errani/Paolini WTA Ningbo WD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/10 | Dabrowski/Stefani WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/10 | Tang/Xu WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 14/10 | Jiang/Wang WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/10 | Perez/Schuurs WTA Beijing WD · Hard |
1-2 | 20-18 | L |
| 05/10 | Alexandrova/Stollar WTA Beijing WD · Hard |
2-1 | 23-22 | W |
| 19/09 | Kobori/Plipuech WTA Guadalajara WD · Hard |
2-1 | 21-14 | W |
| 17/09 | Kozyreva/Lumsden WTA Guadalajara WD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Errani/Paolini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Siniakova/Townsend WTA Finals WD · Hard |
2-1 | 20-15 | W |
| 01/11 | Dabrowski/Stefani WTA Tokyo WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 31/10 | Mihalikova/Nicholls WTA Tokyo WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/10 | Muhammad/Zhang WTA Tokyo WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/10 | Danilina/Jiang WTA Tokyo WD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/10 | Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez WTA Ningbo WD · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/10 | Hunter/Siniakova WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
1-2 | 22-24 | L |
| 16/10 | Danilina/Zhang WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/10 | Mihalikova/Nicholls WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
2-1 | 20-13 | W |
| 13/10 | Fernandez/Gibson WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez vs Errani/Paolini?
Our model gives 55% to Errani/Paolini, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.