Tennis · WTA Finals · 08/11, 21:00
Prediction: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova
Team pages: Marta Kostyuk · Linda Noskova
Prediction summary
Winner
Marta Kostyuk
Linda Noskova
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Marta Kostyuk
6-4 (W-L)
Linda Noskova
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marta Kostyuk
1–2
Linda Noskova
(3 last)
- 06 Sept1-2 16-18L
- 09 Jul0-2 8-12L
- 29 Apr2-0 13-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marta Kostyuk 1517 · Linda Noskova 1576
| Marta Kostyuk | Linda Noskova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Linda Noskova (rating 1517 vs 1576).
- Linda Noskova dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 47.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Marta Kostyuk 1–2 Linda Noskova (3).
- Note: Marta Kostyuk makes many double faults (4.8/match).
- Note: Linda Noskova makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Marta Kostyuk | Linda Noskova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-11.1 | 13.3-9.5 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 7.7 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.4% | 73.7% |
| Break % | 58.1% | 47.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
H2H · Marta Kostyuk 1 – 2 Linda Noskova (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marta Kostyuk 1–2 Linda Noskova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/26 US Open Women | 1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 09/07/26 Wimbledon Women | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 29/04/26 WTA Madrid | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marta Kostyuk
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Maria Sakkari WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 18/09 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Ekaterina Alexandrova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Sloane Stephens US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/08 | Storm Hunter US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Sloane Stephens WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Sofia Kenin WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Linda Noskova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/10 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/09 | Elina Svitolina Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/09 | Cristina Bucsa Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Katie Boulter Billie Jean King Cup · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Aryna Sabalenka US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Marta Kostyuk US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 04/09 | Ann Li US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Lanlana Tararudee US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova?
Our model gives 55% to Linda Noskova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.